ING Economic and Financial Analysis

By Benjamin SchroederA lack of notable data releases allows EUR rates to look up again amid hawkish central bank talk. Banking jitters continue to add volatility, but scanning the usual indicators of...

Crude oil prices remain rangebound. However, refinery margins continue to strengthen driven by tightness in middle distillates. Gasoline has also played a role in this strength, with cracks rising on...

US equity benchmarks continue to push higher as most of the big tech stocks close in on bullish target prices. Chinese equities, however, continue to languish as Chinese authorities institute an array...

By Padhraic GarveyThe Fed and the European Central Bank are on holding patterns. Tuesday saw the data vacuum allow yields to drift lower after two days of dramatic rises. Holding patterns can be...

Cross-market volatility levels remain low as expectations of early easing from the Fed ebb and flow. It is another quiet day for the data calendar and calm conditions are seeing yen-funded carry trade...

By Padhraic GarveyUS Treasury yields were tracking the probability for a March cut, but now tracking the regional bank performance. Eurozone inflation surprised to the upside, but markets keep their...

The focus in FX markets today is on whether US employment continues on its benign downward path and represents the economy coming into ‘better balance’. Of interest will be whether...

By Padhraic GarveyWe are a bit surprised the market has not moved more on the Fed’s firm preference for a holding pattern on rates. Bottom line we see pressure for yields to edge higher on a...

The dollar is doing a little better and equity markets are a little softer after the Federal Reserve pushed back against early easing and US regional banks again hit the headlines. Softer CPI trends...

Expectations of the first Federal Reserve rate cut in March continue to fade as US data comes in on the strong side. Our bias is that the message from today’s FOMC meeting is also one of...

The US seems to be enjoying a virtuous cycle of better-than-expected growth, higher tax receipts, and lower-than-expected borrowing requirements. In contrast, today should see a mild contraction in...

The week ahead is a busy one for financial markets, including key central bank meetings in the UK and US, key data releases (eurozone inflation, US NFP) the US Treasury quarterly refunding...

FX markets continue to trade in a mixed fashion. The dollar is not quite sure whether it wants to rally on resilient US growth prospects or sell off in a world of lower market interest rates. Its path...

By Benjamin SchroederUS 5-year auction was rough, but Thursday's core PCE should be tame – what then? Likely yields lower, but only temporarily. The ECB takes centre stage with Lagarde...

European FX markets will today be monitoring how US asset markets react to the news that the Fed will not be renewing its Bank Term Funding Program. US regional banks will be in focus here. Elsewhere,...

By Benjamin SchroederA large sense of anticipation ahead of data dominates thinking, but so too do technical issues like the ongoing unwind of the March rate cut in the US and the rebuild of the...