ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Trump said yesterday that tariffs on Mexico and Canada are still on the table ahead of next Monday’s deadline. Markets remain reluctant to price that in for now, and some soft US consumer confidence...

Germany voted over the weekend, and the results are broadly in line with expectations. The euro (EUR/USD) got a small boost from the CDU/CSU being able to form a coalition only with the SPD, without...

Oil prices are under increasing downward pressure as sentiment sours. Friday’s sell-off in US equities only added to the weakness in energy markets Energy- Speculators Trim Oil Positions Oil prices...

The US dollar has given up all its gains for the week as soft data and US earnings seem to be casting doubts on the notion of US exceptionalism. The USD/JPY is the big winner, receiving extra help...

The standout move in overnight FX markets has been the drop in USD/JPY close to 150 as traders get excited about another hike from the Bank of Japan. Expect USD/JPY to stay offered today before...

The EU agreed on a 16th sanctions package against Russia, which includes a ban on aluminium imports and additional curbs on Russian vessels Energy – EU Sanctions Russian Vessels Supply uncertainty...

Markets continue to carefully assess the implications of Russia-US talks, but we are observing an emerging trend of euro underperformance linked to Trump’s growing isolationism against EU allies....

Why the latest UK inflation figures are better for the Bank of England than they look at first glance Let’s start with the bad news: UK headline inflation is back at 3%, up from 2.5%, after briefly...

Despite the start of talks between the US and Russia, oil prices edged higher with supply risks dominating the market Energy Supply Uncertainty The Crude oil market appears to have found some support...

The latest jobs data is relatively solid, even if the outlook is looking increasingly shaky. Redundancy levels are low, but the major risk is that begins to change ahead of tax hikes in the spring. A...

Copper Futures retreated from over three-month highs on Monday, while the benchmark cash-to-three-month spread – having moved into backwardation for the first time since June 2023 on Friday – has now...

Should Russia and Ukraine ultimately reach a peace deal, the US dollar is probably due another moderate correction – but for now, markets are lacking tangible bearish USD drivers and we think the...

The US dollar continues to trade on the softer side after Friday's soft US January retail sales questioned the strength of US activity. USD/JPY has been in the vanguard of this dollar correction and...

Oil prices are under pressure this morning with talk of a potential restart in oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region Energy Despite the downward pressure on oil prices through much of last week,...

The threat of tariffs on copper imports to the US has driven the difference between the CME copper contract price and the LME to record highs A Tariff Bost The markets are already pricing in tariffs...

If Thursday was the 'Big Day' for US reciprocal tariffs, you wouldn't have known it by looking at the global equity rally or the slightly softer US dollar. The benign impact on markets of yesterday's...