ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The calendar is packed for this last full trading week of the year. Central bank rate meetings in the US and Japan take centre stage, but we’ll also see rate meetings in the UK, Sweden, Norway, the...

The US dollar is largely holding onto gains as this week’s US inflation data has come in on the firm side and kept USD rates supported. EUR/USD bears have also survived the ECB test, where Christine...

Oil prices have been better supported recently on the back of reports that the US is potentially looking to impose further sanctions against Russia, which could target oil Energy – Sanctions Risk Oil...

As year-end fast approaches, central banks make their final monetary policy adjustments. Canada delivered a 50bp rate cut yesterday, while Brazil delivered a 100bp hike – because fiscal policy is too...

US core inflation posted a fourth consecutive 0.3% print, showing that progress towards the Fed inflation goal has clearly stalled. Nonetheless, the Fed’s favored measure of inflation is doing a...

The global Crude Oil market is set to return to surplus in 2025 despite OPEC+ extending supply cuts. This surplus should see prices trending lower next year. However, there are risks 2025 oil...

Gold has had a record-breaking rally this year, supported by the Fed’s easing cycle, central bank purchases and safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical and economic risks. We believe the...

The US dollar has come back bid this week. Any upside surprise to today’s US November core CPI number would trigger another leg higher in the dollar – as would only a 25bp rate cut from the Bank of...

We should see little action before a busier second half of the week in the US and eurozone. If anything, the dollar should see some support ahead of tomorrow’s inflation numbers. Inflation numbers in...

"Little reason to leave the US dollar now" After a brief sell-off on Friday’s US jobs report, the dollar has returned bid. Helping that trend is geopolitics (Korean markets remain unsettled) and a...

The week culminates in today’s November NFP jobs report. Given expectations of a bounce back after last month’s weather and strike-hit figure of +12k, the market now probably sees less than 200k as a...

A handful of OPEC+ members decided to extend supply cuts into next year and also slow the pace at which they will bring supply back onto the market. While this move reduces the scale of the surplus...

FX markets are consolidating ahead of tomorrow’s big US jobs release and the US dollar is a little softer after the ISM Services release disappointed expectations yesterday. The collapse of the...

If US exceptionalism and the potential for a second Trump administration weren’t enough to hold US dollar, geopolitics and events in South Korea on Tuesday only add to the argument. Expect the market...

FX markets continue to see a strong dollar even though this week should really be about US data and prospects for Fed easing. The currencies of three of the five BRICS founding members are under...

A much busier week in terms of US data will have a major say in whether the Fed cuts rates by 25bp on 18 December. US data poses some downside risks to the US Dollar, but the continued and expanding...