Danske Markets

We believe that the Riksbank will adjust GDP growth lower and flatten the inflation curve next week - how will policy respond to that? We close our outright position in the 5y covered bond SEB572...

Irish Q3 GDP data released today showed only a very modest growth rate of 0.1% q/q and 3.5% y/y. While the soft print is out of sync with the upbeat leading indicators it is not really a surprise....

Banks' take-up in the December TLTRO was EUR130bn, which implies the total for the first two TLTROs was around EUR210bn out of EUR400bn eligible (7% of the total amount of eligible loans outstanding...

Today, Norges Bank slashed rates by 25bp. The new interest rate path suggests a 50% probability of another rate cut before June. The rate path is based on an assumption of mainland GDP growth of 1.5%...

Norges Bank will leave rates unchanged at today's meeting. There are no signs of a severe economic downturn in current data. Based on the various factors affecting the central bank rate path, we...

Growth. The all-important question is still how the Australian economy and labour market handles the fall in mining investments. Recent data releases suggest that the Australian economy will struggle...

Following dovish comments from a number of prominent ECB members, a continued decline in the oil price and an expected weak take-up at the December TLTRO tomorrow, we now expect the ECB to announce...

Market movers today Focus continues to be on the oil market and the potential repercussions on Emerging Markets. Following a strong rally in risk assets profit taking has set in as year-end...

Leading indicators for the major regions are showing signs of improvement following a soft period. In particular, leading indicators for the euro area are looking better. In the US, the picture is...

Main points in the December forecast 1. The net borrowing requirement for 2015 has been raised by SEK40bn to SEK51bn. The reason is slower economic recovery and higher cost for migration due to...

Market movers today Another quiet day on the data front today. Germany releases trade balance and wage costs this morning. The German trade data have been quite strong lately, as weakness in exports...

This week, the scorecard recommends buying JPY, SEK and NZD while selling CAD, AUD and USD. Last week's signals resulted in a 0.4% loss. Especially the long JPY position was expensive while the short...

IMM data released on Friday revealed that investors for the second consecutive week reduced their short EUR positions. Non-commercial EUR positioning has consequently rebounded to the 8th percentile -...

This morning, industrial production in Germany disappointed slightly by rising 0.2% m/m despite strong orders on Friday. Later today we will get the euro Sentix index data, which bottomed in November....

For more on our 2015 strategic view for the Scandi markets see Scandi Strategy 2015: Converging growth, low for longer and carry , 2 December. Next week Swedish inflation is expected to be in line...

On Friday evening, Ireland was upgraded to 'A' from 'A-' by S&P 500. The outlook is 'stable'. Ireland was on 'positive' outlook by S&P, so while the timing of the upgrade was a pleasant...