For more on our 2015 strategic view for the Scandi markets see Scandi Strategy 2015: Converging growth, low for longer and carry , 2 December.
Next week Swedish inflation is expected to be in line with the Riksbank forecast and little market impact is expected. We will also keep an eye on labour market survey.
The Swedish debt office will publish its new borrowing forecasts for 2015 and tap in the Dec '20 and May '25 SGBs.
In Norway , we expect the Norges Bank meeting and the new monetary policy report with the rate path to be a real thriller. There is extreme uncertainty after oil prices have plummeted from USD95/bl to USD70/bl since the last monetary policy report.
All in all, we expect Norges Bank to leave interest rates unchanged and believe the interest rate path in the monetary policy report will include a roughly 50/50 chance of a rate cut before next summer. This is based on the central bank assuming GDP growth of around 1.75% and wage growth of around 3.25% in 2015. Despite no rate cut, we believe that Norges Bank will be seen as dovish.
In Denmark , the week brings numbers for inflation, which we expect to come out at -0.4% m/m and 0.3% y/y for November, down from 0.1% m/m and 0.5% y/y in October.
Denmark will hold its last auction for this year. The Danish Debt Management Office (DMO) will tap the 2.5% Nov '16 and the 1.75% Nov '25.
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