Danske Markets

Market movers ahead There are downside risks to the coming week's US retail sales data and upside risks to the preliminary December University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index. Furthermore,...

In this week’s Strategy we highlight three macro themes that we expect to shape global markets in 2015. These are 1) synchronised global recovery with low inflation, 2) historic divergence in...

Market movers today The main event today is the November labour market report in the US. We expect non-farm payrolls to post another healthy gain of 240,000, which is a bit above consensus and the...

• Danske Bank’s DKK EMPI indicates rising DKK appreciation pressure. • We now forecast a 10bp DN CD rate cut before the end of Q1 – previously we expected the rate cut before the...

Yet another ruble sell-off... The Russian ruble experienced yet another sell-off this week. The USD/RUB lost around 3.5% while EUR/RUB lost over 4%. Furthermore, Russian credit risk increased sharply...

• Oil price plunge raises deflation risk. • New borrowing forecast – but on what economic policy? • The oil price slump takes its toll. Trades New, lower forward BEI rate between...

Market movers today The main event is the ECB meeting. We expect the ECB to keep the powder dry as it waits for the take-up of the TLTRO in mid-December but for Draghi to sound as dovish as he can...

This week the 10-Year bond SGBi3109 is tapped, SEK1bn. On the back of the collapse in oil prices, European break-even spreads have been hammered, with near panic market movements on some days. Even...

Euro area retail sales increased 0.4% m/m in October after declining 1.2% m/m in September. In yearly terms they were up 1.4% in October and have increased at around that level since April. There was...

Yesterday the right-wing party Sweden Democrats (SD) announced that it will support the former alliance government's alternative budget bill, which effectively means that the present government's...

Welcome to Danske Bank Markets Fixed Income and FX Top Trades 2015. We present 11 Fixed Income trades and 10 FX trades. No. 1: Receive 3Y spot in EUR swaps No. 2: Receive 1Y1Y EUR/USD CCS No. 3:...

Welcome to Scandi Strategy 2015, in which we present our view on the Scandinavian economies and fixed income and FX markets for the coming year. In 2015, we look for more uniform, but unfortunately...

Market movers today In the euro area details for Q3 GDP will be released in connection with the first revision. We expect the data to show that the weakness in the euro area also in Q3 was mainly...

For the sixth time, we present our year-end FX Top Trades for the coming year. In the years 2010-14, our FX Top Trades delivered an average return of 2.42% with an average hit ratio of 72%. This...

The ECB has eased twice in 2014, but liquidity conditions in the Euro system will still be balancing around critical levels in Q1 next year. This follows as the TLTRO operations do not have the size...

Job report preview We expect nonfarm payrolls to gain 240,000 in November , which is a little above consensus of 228,000. We expect the unemployment rate to be flat at 5.8% (same as consensus). ...