Market movers today
Another quiet day on the data front today. Germany releases trade balance and wage costs this morning. The German trade data have been quite strong lately, as weakness in exports to Russia is compensated by stronger exports to other regions. Wage costs may attract some attention given the focus on second-round effects from the low inflation. However, it is normally not a number that has much market impact.
In the UK industrial production is due. Production has improved a bit again recently following a soft spot over the summer. We look for a further increase in October of 0.2% m/m in line with consensus.
In the US the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is released. It has moved broadly sideways since April but we expect an improvement in November on the back of the lower oil price, which is underpinning private consumption.
The oil market will continue to attract attention as the oil price continues to grind lower to the lowest level in five years. It is now down close to USD50 per barrel since the latest peak in June. It is increasingly likely that euro inflation will dip below zero in coming months.
The Swedish Debt Office presents an updated forecast for the state budget balance in 2014-2015 and in Denmark foreign trade figures for October are due for release.
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