Cumberland Advisors

In the latest on US trade policy, we are now starting to see the economic consequences of starting a tariff war. Farmers have been complaining that they are being hurt irreparably by the imposition of...

The Trump-Navarro trade war rhetoric ratchets higher. And jawboning the Fed is now added to the turmoil; our colleague Bob Eisenbeis has recently reflected on that one here. Meanwhile, most of the...

Former St. Louis Fed President Bill Poole who also was an economic adviser to Ronald Reagan has written about Trump-Trade policy and published this profoundly instructive commentary on July 2. He...

My colleague Bob Eisenbeis recently described the improved communications from the Fed and offered his current thoughts on Fed policy. His post-Fed-meeting notes are here:...

The second quarter of 2018 saw a continuation of themes apparent in the first quarter. In June the Federal Reserve continued raising rates to a federal funds rate target that now stands at...

The tax-free bond market has continued to benefit from the drop in supply so far in 2018. To recap, the end of 2017 saw a bulge in supply as issuers tried to beat the tax-cut bill that Congress was...

While the US stock market had a long overdue correction in February of 2018, the first quarter ended merely flat eventually. Continuing from the rebound since February's low, the stock market kept...

In the past two weeks investors have come, belatedly, to recognize the negative implications of the election of a populist government in Italy, the first such government in Western Europe. The...

“I don’t want to invest in any gun makers,” said our client. She was and is passionate and adamant. “This shooting stuff has to stop.”“I agree with the goal”...

In their February 15 DataTrek newsletter, Jessica Rabe and Nick Colas refer to the classic DuPont (NYSE:DWDP) model in discussing how to deal with equity valuations. They admit that “Permanent...

Many market agents seem vexed by the VIX. Their recent lessons include a dramatic spiking of volatility, the reactionary pricing of an exchange-traded note (ETN), some forced liquidation, and a...

Eurozone equity markets have declined in step with global markets in a widely expected market correction. While there has been some recovery in the first two days of this week, it is not yet clear...

The bond markets have experienced a hiccup in the first part of this year, with the 10-year bond rising 45 basis points in yield, to 2.85% from 2.40%, and the 30-year bond rising 37 basis points in...

Fierce forces at work on interest rates…or are we just seeing a mild adjustment? There is no way to know. We are referring to US Treasury interest rates on bills, notes and bonds. Some bullets...

Strategas Research has compiled the year-to-date (through January 25) returns of major global equity markets. They point to Hong Kong and Brazil as the leaders, with returns YTD of around 10%. Of the...

The strong advance in international (global ex-US) equity markets this year slowed down in the final quarter as advanced-economy markets consolidated their substantial gains and some emerging markets...