USD/TRY - US Dollar Turkish Lira

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Mr Toto Feb 20, 2025 2:16PM ET

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Banks are offering around 40% interest on TL, while the TL has depreciated by 17% in the last 52 weeks. Is it a good idea to invest in TL, considering the only way to lose money would be if the TL depreciates by more than 27%? Could this happen?

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Dwain Hobbs 15 hours ago

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I already mentioned this below ( but this is the past ) ,, interest rates will be dropping so returns may average 30% in 2025, at the same time if inflation picks up ( and the TCB cannot / will not raise rates ) perhaps the lira may drop 25% ,, the question then becomes is it a good risk reward trade for a 5% potential return on lira ( versus similar on US treasuries ) ? personally i think its only worth the risk in the very short term as the view beyond May ( or even April ) is not visible .

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Star 360 Feb 11, 2025 4:08AM ET

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Turkey is one of the most expensive country in the world right now, lira has to go 50 al least this year.

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deniz yılmazaslan Feb 11, 2025 4:08AM ET

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i think 70-80 is more fair. 50 was better one year ago

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yü ta Feb 05, 2025 3:05AM ET

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biist

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SARAY MÜPTELASI Feb 05, 2025 3:05AM ET

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skssss

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Mark Ukanela Feb 03, 2025 10:07AM ET

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Will go to 40

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SARAY MÜPTELASI Feb 03, 2025 10:07AM ET

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only 40? target 99999999. just need the time.

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Solomon Jan 23, 2025 6:08AM ET

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Repo rates finally coming down. Some respite in inflation also. Time to short this pair

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Dwain Hobbs Jan 23, 2025 6:08AM ET

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As a plain short there is limited room for price to fall imo,,, most likely it will rise slowly or stay flat,, but as a carry trade earning interest then possibly ok for the next couple of months,,, my expectation is for Turkish inflation to start rising in a few months and will be difficult politically to raise rates again so the usual drama will restart

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Marian San Jan 23, 2025 6:08AM ET

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Your comments always so appreciated,,makes lot of sense.I follow your comments for quite a time and reality mostly follows your predictions...Thanks for posting them here...

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East Jan 22, 2025 11:58AM ET

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100 by 2030?

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Dwain Hobbs Dec 31, 2024 4:50AM ET

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People who only focus on the negatives miss good opportunities when they come,,, the Turkish lira has been one of the best FX investments this year,, if your capital in dollars converted to Liras at the start of January the bank interest througout the year average of 40% through the year,, that capital returned back to dollars on last day of the year ( today ) the loss in exchange rate is around 16%,, overall profit in dollar terms a whopping 24% ! ,, this is NOT matched via US treasuries (5%), or any other emerging market currency,, you want to make regularl profits leave emotions and bias out of the trading equation ,, Happy new year !

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San Marina Dec 31, 2024 4:50AM ET

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Its easier to tell the story after it ends than before it starts. That was involving very high risk of TRY collapse or even losing your capital. If we feel sorry now for not buying TRY with all our money and not having saving account in turkish bank, then we should feel more sorry for not going all in a stock like palantir that multiplied by 400% or nvidia that multiplied by 200%. By the way, for turkish residents it is useless because the inflation rate was over 60% which means eating the value of their TRY currency and ending up witha net of -20% in value.

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Dwain Hobbs Dec 31, 2024 4:50AM ET

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San Marina if you scroll a little down ( May 14th ) you will realise that i told the story before it happened ,, i even managed to make decent returns with this lira income trade hence my above message .. it could continue for a couple of months but i wouldnt chase it beyond that ,, i think inflation is on the way up again and the TCB will not be able to raise rates due to the politics ..

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Stefan Beck Dec 31, 2024 4:50AM ET

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lets see what news are coming. with good chance will get more complicated then last 6 months.

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Solomon Dec 31, 2024 4:50AM ET

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Can you lock forward USDTRY rate via banking channels available to consumers?

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Marian San Dec 31, 2024 4:50AM ET

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Hello Dwain,according to you where this pair goes till end of the year? I saw some ING forecast close to 43,is that possible?

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Şafak Ali Dec 24, 2024 4:52PM ET

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Turkish central bank is selling dollar nonstop before thursday rate cut

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Dwain Hobbs Dec 24, 2024 4:52PM ET

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Well , here’s the cut , 250bps (more than 150bps market anticipates ), so far lira stable ,,, CB reserves have been steadily increasing last 6 months ,, they seem to be doing a controlled devaluation which is less than the interest paid to TL savers to keep it attractive to stay in liras ,,, so far working good , lets see what happens in 2025 ,, generally low rates are good for the economy / but needs inflation to drop too / thats the REAL callenge

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Ugurcan Gokce Dec 24, 2024 4:52PM ET

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Dwain Hobbs 30% increase in minimum wage is for future inflation. With this limited increase Turkish inflation will drop easier in 2025.

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Nebati UZUN Dec 15, 2024 1:03AM ET

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Why

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Nebati UZUN Dec 15, 2024 12:45AM ET

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There will be devaluation in Turkey very soon. It is not investment advice

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Dwain Hobbs Dec 15, 2024 12:45AM ET

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Why ? There’s no parallel price or large disparity ,, the central bank fx reserves have steadily increased , credit default swaps at low levels ,,, AND , they had plenty of oppurtunity to devalue at a steady pace so why shock the market now , create instability and high inflation ??

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Şafak Ali Dec 15, 2024 12:45AM ET

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Dwain Hobbs hey man, you dont know our present.

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