USD/TRY - US Dollar Turkish Lira

Real-time Currencies
Currency in
TRY
36.3822
+0.1320(+0.36%)
Closed

USD/TRY Discussions

Banks are offering around 40% interest on TL, while the TL has depreciated by 17% in the last 52 weeks. Is it a good idea to invest in TL, considering the only way to lose money would be if the TL depreciates by more than 27%? Could this happen?
I already mentioned this below ( but this is the past ) ,, interest rates will be dropping so returns may average 30% in 2025, at the same time if inflation picks up ( and the TCB cannot / will not raise rates ) perhaps the lira may drop 25% ,, the question then becomes is it a good risk reward trade for a 5% potential return on lira ( versus similar on US treasuries ) ? personally i think its only worth the risk in the very short term as the view beyond May ( or even April ) is not visible .
Turkey is one of the most expensive country in the world right now, lira has to go 50 al least this year.
i think 70-80 is more fair. 50 was better one year ago
biist
skssss
Will go to 40
only 40? target 99999999. just need the time.
Repo rates finally coming down. Some respite in inflation also. Time to short this pair
As a plain short there is limited room for price to fall imo,,, most likely it will rise slowly or stay flat,, but as a carry trade earning interest then possibly ok for the next couple of months,,, my expectation is for Turkish inflation to start rising in a few months and will be difficult politically to raise rates again so the usual drama will restart
Your comments always so appreciated,,makes lot of sense.I follow your comments for quite a time and reality mostly follows your predictions...Thanks for posting them here...
100 by 2030?
People who only focus on the negatives miss good opportunities when they come,,, the Turkish lira has been one of the best FX investments this year,, if your capital in dollars converted to Liras at the start of January the bank interest througout the year average of 40% through the year,, that capital returned back to dollars on last day of the year ( today ) the loss in exchange rate is around 16%,, overall profit in dollar terms a whopping 24% ! ,, this is NOT matched via US treasuries (5%), or any other emerging market currency,, you want to make regularl profits leave emotions and bias out of the trading equation ,, Happy new year !
lets see what news are coming. with good chance will get more complicated then last 6 months.
Can you lock forward USDTRY rate via banking channels available to consumers?
Hello Dwain,according to you where this pair goes till end of the year? I saw some ING forecast close to 43,is that possible?
Turkish central bank is selling dollar nonstop before thursday rate cut
Well , here’s the cut , 250bps (more than 150bps market anticipates ), so far lira stable ,,, CB reserves have been steadily increasing last 6 months ,, they seem to be doing a controlled devaluation which is less than the interest paid to TL savers to keep it attractive to stay in liras ,,, so far working good , lets see what happens in 2025 ,, generally low rates are good for the economy / but needs inflation to drop too / thats the REAL callenge
pro badge
30% increase in minimum wage is for future inflation. With this limited increase Turkish inflation will drop easier in 2025.
Why
There will be devaluation in Turkey very soon. It is not investment advice
Why ? There’s no parallel price or large disparity ,, the central bank fx reserves have steadily increased , credit default swaps at low levels ,,, AND , they had plenty of oppurtunity to devalue at a steady pace so why shock the market now , create instability and high inflation ??
hey man, you dont know our present.
This will go to 40
why dollar not down, hope back 5 tl
There are lots of manipulator news on Kapalicarsi in istanbul so dollar try cant enter bullish time
down 200 bp in december. (48%) USDTRY is going to 35-35.50 year end.
Not mandatory, as if they cut to 48% it will be as they see signs of reduction in inflation.
Tcmb is selling dollar
By price action, I guess hedge fund switched to intraday longs. Do you guys see that reversal at the end of each day, followed by an instant uptick after we roll to the next day? (Or more visible on your own trading platforms than here)
Lira had enough rest time now the great Trump will shake it little bit ,
I think it will be mostly internal Turkey related ,,, dollar index soared 7% last few months while usdtry almost flat ,, so down to TCB monetary policy / inflation , Erdo mood etc.
My guess is they will try and push this until the Central Bank interest rate meeting on Thursday, then one last jump, a bit of a reversal, than sideways till new years.
Who buys Turkish lira ?? No one probably
why they stop at .29 what is the point:)
I dont know the answer but someone will reply to you in the next 3 months ,,, things have been slow in this forum since usdtry movements slowed …
Will TRY ever improve?
Yes, and it started vs. other currencies. It always help, when Erdogan is quite ;-)
Its been rather stable compared to previous years ,,, its also currently amongst the highest yields in the market ,, banks pay interest around 45% p.a. ( around 3.3% net return per month in lira after tax) with the lira falling avg 1% a month vs dollar,,, >2% net retun per MONTH in dollar terms since around March time ,, not a bad deal , obviously will not last long but has been a good fixed income play so far
my guess is usd will be 35 by end of year, only guess
pro badge
As i always say since it was 8, this is going up forever. Thank you president Erdogan for making us rich.
What you say is true. But there is a point to this. You can't go on in debt forever.
m.simsek resigned?
Not true newa
The people get the government they deserve😂
well i didnt deserve them but here i am
pro badge
here we go again
...
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.