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US Coffee C Futures - May 25 (KCK5)

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401.35 +9.95    +2.54%
- Real-time derived data. Currency in USD
Type:  Commodity
Group:  Agriculture
Unit:  1 Pound
  • Prev. Close: 391.40
  • Open: 391.85
  • Day's Range: 390.98 - 401.55
US Coffee C 401.35 +9.95 +2.54%

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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 18 minutes ago
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Buyers have been holding back as much as they can for the past 2-3 months, expecting lower prices in the future. The level of hedged positions is the lowest in years. When it becomes clear that lower prices are unlikely, crop losses are real, they will be forced to return to buying. Perfect setup for further dynamic price increases.
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SMT Money
SMT Money 1 hour ago
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Finally ut's raining on the Brazil! expect to touch 400 and come down
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Ro Al
Ro Al 1 hour ago
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It is already raining for weeks. Even thi next 2 weeks a whole month of rain will fall, there need to be other news for it to go down. I expect later in Q2 when demand numbers and crops numbers will come out that this commodity will cool for a bit. Remember that the price exact laster year march 24th 2024 was $180. So plenty of room to go down. But I do not think it will be this week.
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Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza 24 minutes ago
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When you guys will understand that rain is always needed but regarding the good results in bloossom happens only when it is blossomm time, what is already lost will not recovery no matters how much rains now, rain now is good for not make the problem worst, but will not bring new flowering or new beans, can you picture that?
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 22 minutes ago
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Manipulating. It's been raining for less than two weeks. After 2 months of drought in the middle of the rainy season. 2 weeks that were below average for the period anyway. Now forecasts predict less and less rain and April as the start of the dry season. You are manipulating comrade.
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Peter Lechev
Peter Lechev 5 hours ago
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Going for 415
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 2 hours ago
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What are you talking about, eggs are getting cheap. ;)
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Ro Al
Ro Al 1 hour ago
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Eggs are getting cheap. Coffee is the last one. It will take some time. Just give it time. Rome isn't build in a day. Like I will be praying that it will take some time that someday the poor Brazilian inhibitants will buy up every piece of land of the corrupt farmer on the forum. They deserve a normal life! :)
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Ro Al
Ro Al 1 hour ago
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While you make jokes about your lambo or private plane, there are people who struggle to eat today. Think about that, vile person..
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 1 hour ago
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Farmers in Brazil are what? Not Brazilians? Aliens? And of course according to Comrade Ro they must be corrupt. What kind of mess do you have in your head? Why do you wish them so badly?
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Rodrigo Faria
Rodrigo Faria 44 minutes ago
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Remember: the same poor people and family farmers who anxiously await the start of the harvest, in 3 months guarantee their livelihood for an entire year.
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Frank Shan
Frank Shan Mar 22, 2025 9:57AM ET
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This forum appears to be like the geopolitical situation: there are ones that would live Always under the bomb attacks (climate,l lower expected production etc) and the ones that eventually would consider a peace scenario (production not do bad as said, lower exports as a results of better income and consequently no hurry tò sale etc.) and specs that take advantage of this situation that no foresee the longs terme scenario ( they instead are doing completely the opposite and positioning for the next years) Well we Will see where the Truth stat, and at the same time I suggest tò the One that want tò do excercise tò compare the COT of end of January with the latest One and do his proper reflection. Whishing all a good weekend without too Much fights
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 22, 2025 9:57AM ET
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I'm just curious to see argumentation and nothing else :). Export numbers can be always viewed differently according to the concept in use: no coffee or unwilling producers, etc. However, the stations data in comparison with 2018, 2019, 2020 speaks for itself and this is fundamental truth :) and thus, applied to the situation, it points more to the issue with coffee than to the issues with producers. COT wise, monthly chart clearly shows that 1994, 1997, 2011 final tops have been produced on diverged COT. :) What means that existing top may still not be the top, even if intermediate :). Harvest time is a perfect time for the top as more clarity is available for everybody :). And a Great Weekend to you too Frank !
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Frank Shan
Frank Shan Mar 22, 2025 9:57AM ET
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As said proper reflections. And I do not want tò drive anyone in some direction. Some numbers Will be available soon for Conillon (the Vietnamese and India Robusta more or less already know they produce more or less the same volumes of the past : they export 20% less in average they earn 30% more in average. Industry cover what neededf. Future production expected tò be higher for both and with the carry left by the lower export I let you make the proper conclusions The same for the Arabica ( even of It Will be seen in a couple of months). Then as expressed before everyone Is able tò find out numbers and give its interpretation. The coffee market in my personal opinion Is not under Attack from weather and climate buy from the news that only consider One side of the environment. Full picture has a more in depth explanation
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Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza 21 minutes ago
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Frank Shanconillon i believe that is a canephora cultivar produced in brasil, Vietnam, India Indonesia Uganda etc is Robusta
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 22, 2025 9:34AM ET
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Ro, 3 questions to you: 1) After all rains and expected :) rains, the week closed 390, Feb low was not broken. Everybody understands that high prices stimulate expansion, importers are in hand to mouth state, rationing started, german companies are closing in wholesale fashion on a daily basis :), LAB coffee is about to start going out of kitchen faucets soon, etc, etc. Why do you think the week didn't close at least about Feb low ? 2) There were many rumors about obvious financial obstacles that hit the big importers: withdrawn/reduced credit lines, etc, etc what affected their business as usual and put many in a wait/see/evaluate regime. However, evaluation will become kinda :) reality around May - July with CONAB in May and USDA in June. What do you think is gonna happen if both reports will come out confirming lower production ? 3) What do you think is gonna happen if lower production 2025 (vs 2023, 2024 :)) will be considered, it will be also considered that 2026 is compromised for the time being ? (Compromised for the time being you should understand as absence of record projection for 2026 but not as another reduction of 10mb, etc.)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 22, 2025 9:34AM ET
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Bonus question :). As 2023 was a record OFF A crop of 45mb (USDA), a 2024 ON A crop should be about 52-53mb, no less in normal circumstances, most likely 54-55mb, assuming expansion, etc. However, 2024 was considered by USDA being roughly 45mb, what translates into underproduction of roughly 8mb. Now, your turn: 1) Do you consider 8mb diff vs would be normal a serious factor ? 2) Do you think that big market participants have to worry on that basis ? 3) Do you understand that it happened on practically no disaster declaration, green trees, etc ?
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Robin Tordoff
Robin Tordoff 23 hours ago
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Viriato MagalhaesYou Question is well put, but ultimately Ro has no understanding of the big picture and simply cherry picks items/factors from the big picture that suit his small picture.
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Robin Tordoff
Robin Tordoff 23 hours ago
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Robin TordoffJibbering on about oranges and eggs in a coffee forum sums it up.
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Ro Al
Ro Al Mar 22, 2025 5:15AM ET
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Have you guys seen the eggs chart? From 8,1 to 3,0 dollars? Have you guys seen the orange juice chart? From 550 to 276 dollars? Have you guys seen the cocoa chart? From 12220 to 7800 dollars?
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Coffee Arabica
Coffee Arabica Mar 22, 2025 5:15AM ET
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Dont you ever get tired?
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Rodrigo Faria
Rodrigo Faria Mar 22, 2025 5:15AM ET
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Does this mean people will have more money for coffee?:)
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Rodrigo Faria
Rodrigo Faria Mar 22, 2025 5:15AM ET
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Does this mean people will have more money for coffee?:)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 22, 2025 5:15AM ET
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Cocoa would be more applicable to coffee, but Cocoa is still more than 2 times higher than its decadal upper trading channel line. For KC to replicate Cocoa, KC needs to reach 900 at first :). OJ and similar illiquid products like Rice, Oats, etc are for professionals mostly if risk is a respected factor. Daily volume will help to understand :).
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Bhuv Ar
Bhuv Ar Mar 22, 2025 5:15AM ET
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They will never allow it to rise that much. Unlike Chocolate, Coffee is far more widely produced.
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Maui Joe
MauiJoe Mar 21, 2025 12:41PM ET
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Next week will be a tough one for bears
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Max Oh
Max Oh Mar 21, 2025 12:41PM ET
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lol nope
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Tesfaye Degechissa
Tesfaye Degechissa Mar 21, 2025 12:41PM ET
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Kindly, why?
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Coffee KC
Coffee KC Mar 21, 2025 10:40AM ET
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176.000 german companies closed down in 2023. Coffee consumption must be doing great despite DEEP recession. Probably brazilian coffee samples growers know it better the domestic analysts.
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Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza Mar 21, 2025 10:40AM ET
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Ro Althe decrease on consumption should be the reason Brazil is exporting more and more coffee rigth?
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude Mar 21, 2025 10:40AM ET
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GDP change in 2024. USA +2.8% EU +0.8% China +5% Brazil +3.4% Yes, this is a deep recession according to Comrade Ro.
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Coffee Arabica
Coffee Arabica Mar 21, 2025 10:40AM ET
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176.000?! Lol, please lay off whatever substance you are on.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 21, 2025 10:40AM ET
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Closed own does not mean the bankrupt. Internet is a tricky thing :). Apr 22, 2024 Online platform Startupdetektor registered 658 new young companies in Q1 2024, compared with 562 in the final three months of 2023. The number of start-ups was also up year-on-year from Q1 2023, when 629 firms were founded.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 21, 2025 10:40AM ET
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:):):). It is not just closed companies for whatever reason have to be stated but newly opened companies as well. While the balance may be towards closed companies, the final figure would look differently: In the first quarter of 2023, roughly 33,100 larger businesses were established in Germany, a decrease of 5.5% year-over-year, according to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). 33 x 4 = roughly 132k new companies ---> 176 - 132 = 44k. Besides LARGER businesses there SMALLER and much smaller businesses, etc :):):). And tons of new businesses got open in EU about 2021 in respond to COVID, some of them got reasonably closed as life got normalized. :):):) In 2023, approximately 568,000 people ventured into self-employment in Germany, a slight increase of 3% compared to the previous year, according to the KfW Entrepreneurship Monitor.
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Kenan Hajdari
Kenan Hajdari Mar 21, 2025 5:37AM ET
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As of March 21, 2025, the precipitation forecast for Brazil's main coffee-growing regions over the next two weeks indicates a return of rainfall, which is expected to alleviate the recent dry conditions. According to recent weather models, significant rainfall is anticipated in areas such as Minas Gerais and São Paulo, starting from March 25, 2025. This precipitation is crucial for supporting the ongoing development of the 2025/2026 coffee crop, especially following the recent dry spell. The European and American weather models both predict increased rainfall in these regions, with the European model suggesting higher volumes concentrated in central Brazil. This aligns with the typical seasonal transition from the dry to the rainy season in central Brazil during this period. Overall, the anticipated rainfall over the next two weeks is expected to improve soil moisture levels and support the healthy development of coffee crops across Brazil's key producing regions.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 21, 2025 5:37AM ET
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If you would read Mr. Mazzafera's comments you would understand why he said that some loss in yield is already irreversible. Your problem is that any comment related to lower yield you absorb as No Coffee Mantra which is completely wrong and just destruct you from reality so, you need to adjust it a bit :), of course if it makes sense for your business model. :):):).
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Ro Al
Ro Al Mar 21, 2025 5:37AM ET
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Viriato have you ever posted good news? Like ever?
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 21, 2025 5:37AM ET
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I'm bullish since 2018 on cyclical basis. In my view :) the final top is not in yet but I may be wrong like everybody else. The difference is that I'm based on long cycles and real physical data/science. As example, I expect that after summer 2025 (Solar cycle 25 peak should take place around that time) the global cooling will start and the weather will start changing rapidly. For SH and Brazil in particular it would :) mean lower temps in general and thus, high temps issue should go away. But on the other side, it may mean higher risk of frost and drought. It has nothing to do with me but with Grand Solar Minima cycle that started in 2020 and should end around 2053 :). Last one was a Maunder cycle and you may read what it was for NH, EU and NL :) specifically. In short, it suggest more anomalies going forward until the cycle went through its peak which would be around 2036 or so... For me and common sense wise :), more anomalies means more risk. There is very poor data about 1645-1715 climate in MG besides some colonial letters :) and jesuits books :) but they point to serious droughts and frosts. Again there was no coffee yet :) in Brazil during that period :)... As soon as March will be done, we'll understand more about total precipitation on AVERAGE and how it may be interpreted, etc. And my outlook for next two decades is not just for KC but for other agris and energies is the same. For sure rains will improve what is possible to improve, without the rains it would be real catastrophe indeed, but as example, 42mb of A in 2025 (if considered) will not add optimism at all. You may look at the weather data for MG or specific regions for 2018 and 2020 which provided record crops and to compare the temps, etc - it will make the picture more clear :).
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 21, 2025 5:37AM ET
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I'm not a perma bull :), I'm a small bull until GSM will run its course. And I have no doubts that high price stimulates expansion and that rationing starts at some level. But rationing is not cancelling at all, rationing is balancing the supply/demand ratio until the problem is solved and last few hundreds of years have shown very clear that inflation :) does not stop people to consume the same products as the income grows :) too.
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Rodrigo Faria
Rodrigo Faria Mar 21, 2025 5:37AM ET
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Same question to you Al: did you post an optimistic news story? We had a drought in the flowering, droughts a few days ago (which happened to improve despite the poor distribution of rains) and prices are above 350. Your news compared to current prices becomes manipulative (or at least an attempt at manipulation) for the simple fact that you have been totally wrong since 250.
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DAWI FELICORI MARQUES
DAWI FELICORI MARQUES Mar 21, 2025 2:26AM ET
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I am a coffee producer in Brazil. We faced major climate issues in 2024, which repeated in 2025. Our stocks are depleted, and coffee will run out before the harvest, which could become the biggest crisis in the history of coffee. There will be high demand for the product, but we won't have any to sell—prices will be much higher!
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Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza Mar 21, 2025 2:26AM ET
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Chris Lbwhat about me? What google says? I agree with Felicori
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 21, 2025 2:26AM ET
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For the market to relax a bit :), 2025 A should come (considered :)) 45mb. Any figure below 45mb will underline the problems. Nobody knows until harvest is roughly done, but general perception for now is below...
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Frank Shan
Frank Shan Mar 21, 2025 2:26AM ET
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Everything above the Volcafe predictions Will be a relax for the market
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 21, 2025 2:26AM ET
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2mb over Volcafe number will move it to 6 :). Market operates mainly in USDA terms and is very conservative (big players) as it is based on statistical models when real exact data is impossible. 7% of IBGE correction applied to USDA 2023 45mb would give you 42mb more or less. After rains started, most likely this is the figure market keeps in mind until further notice :), assuming the loss that has happened and is irreversible.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes Mar 21, 2025 2:26AM ET
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Note, that 45mb as OFF 2023 A production supposed to point to ... record 2024 ON A production of 53 - 55mb and this was what market was expecting initially and that's why it went down to roughly 140...
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