US Coffee C Futures - May 25 (KCK5)

China's Monthly Green Coffee Bean Import (metric ton): Sep 2023: 15904.2, Sep 2024: 9585.9 (-3.97% Y/Y), Oct 2023: 15343.2, Oct 2024: 9449.5 (-3.84% Y/Y), Nov 2023: 18275.4, Nov 2024: 8927.1 (-51.15% Y/Y), Dec 2023: 20142.1, Dec 2024: 12370.2 (-38.59% Y/Y). Source: General Administration of Customs China.

Contrary to earlier expectations, the American economy shrank by almost 3 percent in the first quarter of this year. Previously, growth of around 4 percent was expected. In particular, investments made by companies and consumer spending lagged far behind expectations. Another important article! Demand will fall drastically with a 7% economic difference

Quick facts: 1) Ecuador domestic consumption is about 330kb; 2) A production in Ecuador is about 125kb :):):), R - about 250kb, total - about 375kb; 4) Green bean imports Imports - about 300kb, total import - about 450kb; 5) total export - about 500kb (all forms); 6) In US there is plenty of basic A packs of 340gm 6 - 9 USD per pack still; 7) Big Chains started/starting switching to the privet labels to support certain price level for certain quality coffee (as they always do in similar circumstances); 8) China consumption grew from 2.5mb in 2015 to roughly 6mb in 2024; 9) China production is about 2mb; 10) China import was forecasted to be about 5.5mb in 2024/25. How tariffs will make the product cheaper :) everyone will have a chance to witness for himself, of course if the tariffs will be implemented :):):).

Apparently Brazil is next for TARIFFS. That will be a cool shower for hot brazilian heads :)))

Coffee sellers have cut purchases to a minimum due to a sharp jump in product prices. Suppliers are finding it difficult to convince stores to accept the product at the new prices. This is reported by the Saudi newspaper Arab News. Participants in the National Coffee Association convention in Houston reported a 70 percent increase in Arabica coffee futures information reference Coffee futures are contracts traded on an exchange where traders speculate on the future price of coffee or hedge against its fluctuations. on the ICE information reference ICE (Intercontinental Exchange ) is a large international exchange that trades commodities, financial instruments, and futures. It specializes in oil, gas, coffee, sugar, and other products. exchange. Ecuadorian coffee producer ELCAFE CA sold less than 30 percent of its expected annual production through March for the first time this year. The price of coffee has increased due to a decrease in production, particularly in Brazil. As a result, the supply of coffee beans has decreased significantly. Brokers said companies have purchased raw materials in the quantities needed now and have given up on stocks. A source told Arab News that many of the fresh deals in Brazil were made “in a very conservative manner”. Reuters predicted that prices for Arabica coffee could fall by 30% this year as high prices dampen demand and Brazil is likely to harvest a record crop next year. But until prices fall, the coffee industry could suffer significant losses. The head of one of the largest roasting companies in the United States says his customers are unsure about the future of their businesses. Supermarkets and stores have resisted higher prices, leaving coffee on shelves in some stores. In response to the crisis, India, Uganda, Ethiopia and Brazil are expanding their plantings, which could also lead to a collapse in prices. Wow alot of articles coming out in the past 24 hours

ShortDude is hilarious. Check this out: China's leading coffee province sees 358% surge in coffee exports in 2024. KUNMING, Feb. 25 -- Yunnan Province in southwest China marked a year-on-year increase of 358% of coffee export, according to customs authorities on Tuesday. China does have too much coffee to export.

Brazil's government zeroed import tariffs for several food items aiming to cut local prices for consumers. Coffee and Sugar are among the items. - probably because they have too much coffee they will now import it. ;)

Sorry Brazilians, we Americans have to save our budget for eggs and beef. So we have to slash coffee expense.

Bambui station (closest to Campos Altos) stubbornly shows 30.8C, zero precipitation till now. INMET shows offers :) a good rain in the northern part, nothing for MG. :):):)

Bambui station (closest to Campos Altos) stubbornly shows 30.8C, zero precipitation till now.

Bambui station (closest to Campos Altos) stubbornly shows 30.8C, zero precipitation till now.

The trick to understanding commodities is, short, medium and long term influences. The weather has improved for brazil, this is a medium term influence. Some risk has been taken off the table.

test 300 soon?

The more it falls the busier it gets on this forum with people trying to convience others the world is dying and cofffee needs to go 2k because of it haha

There is a factor that seems to be misunderstood by many, possibly on emotional basis what is easy to explain :):) :). The factor is that tariffs, wars, geopolitical tensions, etc, in other words the abrupt change in the order of things in relation to the international trade and politic and especially in the combination with climatic issues, is never a bearish factor for commodities in general and agris for sure.

Emissions 448,424 +52.3 Shipments 267,559 +27.1

Is this craziness finally over? Think I might test a little ahort

Inviting everyone to look at the latest article by Reuters regarding Trading and ready It till the end. You Will find It in Investing news

There is so much rain coming to the CB that you can "write your pencils dry" but your trunks will still get wet and sweat. What we wait is new Trump tariffs for Brazil food. Thats gonna be a kick in the aaaa...ssss

Campos Altos (Bambui station) max today was 30.3C, zero precipitation. Varginha - 30.3C, zero precipitation, Muzambinho (Caldas station) - 27.8C, 0.2mm precipitation, Nova Resende (Passos station) - 30.7C max, roughly 5 hours (!) over 30C at the station, zero precipitation. Inmet is always happy to provide the closest station data :). Currently Inmet does not show any rain fronts for ... MG at all. All may change any time of course... But it is imperative to understand that the possibility of rain is not rain, if it is the rain it may be not a real :) rain, isolated rain may be in fact ... just few drops of rain :), it is not just rain what only matters (unless it is abundant one) but the state of soil, the type of soil, the landscape, the temperature, the density of the plants, etc. :):):) Not to say that it's never gonna be a good rain in coffee areas in MG and SP :) but one more time to underline that data is available on a daily basis and anybody may check it out easy. :)

ICE inventory up 12.1k bags btw. Just in case Shortdude suddenly forgets his daily inventory post :)

It's not complicated at all. Coffee is simply too expensive and without any technology. Less and less people will buy it. Like cocoa growers said before that chocolate will become luxury goods and people will still buy it. What a joke. It just may take time.

what's is going on Arabica coffee?

Please re-read Viriato's brilliant expose' on fruit development, then draw conclusions.

Dont give up, never give up...600 we come !