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US Coffee C Futures - May 25 (KCK5)

Real-time derived
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
KCc6ICEUSD
KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
357.70
+14.85(+4.33%)
Closed

US Coffee C Futures Discussions

400 this week or next?
As Dude said, beatiful weekly hammer.
Wick me up.
The May contract is about to expire, much more open interest and volume is already on the July contract.
I would kindly add to it that tariffs (China) risk is in place and so the stock market drop and/or a much bigger scale event. Assuming current price and no disaster stated or expected tomorrow, recents rains, rationing, harvest around the corner, etc it would be accurate for KC after reaching intraday high yesterday to continue downside and to close Friday around 330 or lower. However this is not what has happened... Not to say that it will skyrocket on Monday, etc but to underline that general mood is not bearish still :).
Do not forget of the option expiry yesterday. Look also to COT that obviously do not include the last 3 days action buy apparently indicate specs and index not so eager of the ling side not excluded a Jump tò 366 only tò close gap
Inmet published data for March for Bello Horizonte vs 1991 - 2020 (normal :)). Precipitation in March 2025 in BH was 134.3mm, 68% of would be normal 197.5mm.
How much in March could havebeen good for coffee?
Cecafe, A, 2025: Jan - 3.299mb, Feb - 2.899mb, March - 2.813mb. Conilon: Jan - 334kb, Feb - 231kb, March - 139 kb (!) Whoever thinks what :):):), but numbers go down...
And one more thing: you refer constantly to brick and mortar vendors in relation to whole/ground coffee but I suggest you to look at online sales and their growth within 2024 and the trend. Online sellers do not have the same service expense as brick and mortar and assuming fast delivery, it does not matter for the households/companies/hotels/etc from where to order but it makes a huge difference for vendors as brick and mortar can't operate on the same profit margin as online sellers. In the restaurants the price for coffee is comparing to the prices of other beverages in the menu and sales of coffee are insignificant vs meals/alcohol, in coffee shops price of powder is within 10% of the total structure, the rise in other 90% within last few years makes rise in coffee prices not visible. :)
Lavazza in US still offers 100 pods on Amazon for $50 with the next day delivery and there are plenty of competitive offers still. You don't think they all are stupid, right ??? :):):) And this is Lavazza machines pods, NE original compatible $45 for 120 pods. Does it hurt RETAIL consumption in your view ??? :):):) (Home, offices, hotels, etc...)
Whole beans/ground $25 per 1kg, 10gm per cup - 0.25c. Does it hurt consumption ? It doesn't and especially, facing the reality if Chinese goods will be 145% duty paid :):):). Coffee will stay one rare super cheap pleasure :):):):):) indeed, talking home, office, etc...
Wow inventory grew 8k! and pending +30k!
Im totally wrong
Im totally wrong the world consumption dayle is around 488.000 bags
Brasil is the one still delivering, last 16 months including April, is about 60 million bags
Easy long add here.
Radio Maja is broadcasting again! This time Maja gives a new number for Brazil, 40-44 million bags in total! Trump isn't the only one who likes extreme numbers! ;)
The rumors from producers are that 2025 will be below 2023. If to remove extremes and to operate in USDA terms, then it would look (currently) as 40 - 42mb. Vs 2023 it would be 5 - 3mb less, average 4mb, vs it would be perfect - 7 - 5mb less, A meaning. R remains a wild card :) as some issues have been admitted but all are seeing record crop :). Last year some issues have been mentioned too :) but final figures did not confirm it. Can this year be a different one ??? :):):)
You did not understand, because it is actually difficult to comprehend. She says Brazil will harvest 40-44 million bags of Arabica and Robusta combined.
Will 450come this year?
Alpha Centauri why dear ?
Maybe, after gap close @265 it wants to see the 300;)
*365
quote myself yesterday at 2.oo pm "fundamentals still high, prices at the origins doubled in 48 hours, colombia is not offering anymore, rebound will come shortly"
It also includes May Conab and June USDA reports :). Is the ball back to the keeper ??? :):):).
Fundamental technically speaking, yes - if football is Fairplay.
It goes very technically for now :): got out of the channel, stopped, got back in, now backtesting lower border, if backtest will sustain - 365 would be :) next and it is roughly middle of the channel and then we'll see. As tariffs have been delayed (or removed :):):) ) the primary factors remain coffee fundamentals/weather and general risk, which risk is hanging on China and it is still ON and big way. Nobody knows but some solution :) may be just around the corner as it is very hard to imagine what US will be doing otherwise :). China risk factor, if not subdued/removed would force further liquidation of whatever :) , KC including, but it does not affect the price directly as the tariffs do. And tariffs are OFF practically till the moment when harvest will be known :). Thus, unless China situation will escalate quickly :), the ball is indeed back to the keeper :).
General weather situation appears good with recent rains and more in forecast in Vietnam (beside dry season:):):) It`s not Monsoon yet. Little bit demand at 3.30 but where`s the money of those micro lots of those euphoric Guate buyers?... Total Beef trap here?
Holy cow! Gold trading at 3133 now off correction low around 2980. What an opportunity it was to buy during the tariff fear selloff
Trump canceling the tariffs for 90 days came out after the coffee close at 12:30 central. Official close around 3.40 before the Trump announcement. After tariff pause, commodities rallied big but coffee was already closed. Tonight open at 2:30 am while we are sleeping will be interesting.
bond markets are damaged, problems are still in the market.
no more recession and supply still aproblem? interesting
$20 range. WOW! This is buying the dip Huge time....
So it's safe to say that now every importer has 90 days to quickly rebuild stock before the tariffs come back? Could be interesting ;)
75 countries or so got grace period :).
yes but ICE inventory to rise?
pending grading was up & fail ratio looks better
Guys, a side question, share your opinions please, who's willing: crude/NG got sold intact with tariffs issue, if tariffs issue will not get solved quickly, geo-political tensions will rise more and global cooling will start affecting NH from this fall season, what would happen to crude/NG prices ??? :):):)
Orange Juice 20% up in 2 days!
Cocoa 9% up today. Hmm
(A: First g is done. Go Go Panthers !!! :) )
after dropping more than 60 percent in 2 months
What is the weather like :-),:-),:-)....
Who cares? Today even frost -10C wouldn't change anything. ;)
Rain in Vietnam.
AI Artificial (Intelligence or Idiocy) as well automatic trade will drive the markets for a while (?)!! Fundamentals who care of them? As it happened in the last two years
Maybe some of them keep apart for some days the money for coffee and it will be able to have new sneakers. Depending by the personal needs. Human attitude cannot reflect our personal thoughts as if all the rest of the world will be aligned with us. That what made difference. Also in the spec behaviour. No magical formula!
I am talking about US only. Those are not my thoughts - this is the reality in US. I monitor several online vendors/brands and use as the indication: overnight increase was roughly 60% for close-out product - the one that needs to be cleared the fastest (or would be in normal circumstances). Regular people, that working regular jobs will cancel purchases that doubled (will quadruple ?) in price but will not cancel their lunches and coffee. That's a hard fact. People with higher income do not need to sacrifice on coffee - no reason... ( All this is a perfect scenario for stagflation :):):). Many have been sure few years ago that inflation will drop, etc - it just started in fact :):):). Nobody believed in hyperinflation - well, it may be seen in US tomorrow :):):). And confusion is non-quantifying also ! Anybody who imports from tariffed origins (China especially) does not know what to do next: to place new orders or to close the shop ? Coffee may be the cheapest healthy option to concentrate indeed :):):). )
USA Is only (even if important) part of the formula but have tò be considered also the other variables (China, UE, origins, Asia and Who know how many others). The full worldwide picture for sure Will be different by the USA ( abt 342 millions vs abt 8 billions people)
Buy and hold
fundamentals still high, prices at the origins doubled in 48 hours, colombia is not offering anymore, rebound will come shortly
They will try not to offer for a while Trying to increase diffs. But suddenly they have to capitulate. P. S. Latest news from Colombia They are increasing production (slightly) each month see latest FNC release
Fundos exit ...
Viriato, shouldn't we start getting more interested in the potential of 2026 than 2025? Almost everything is already known about 2025?
Managed Money maybe are thinking (probably already Done) to play the short position we will see in the next weeks COT
ShortDude. 100%, though the number for 2025 will matter, if it's gonna be 40 - 42 or below (or higher :)). While hot anomalies are still playing out, some signs of cooling also start appearing. Nobody knows for sure, but it should become more pronounced from July/August what correlates with the harvest. The real structural support is 250 - 275 cluster as 140 cluster was before. But we should let the dust settle first. :):):)
Damns I am long to 500/600 My yellow Lambo is still on my wallpaper and can not afford more then Aldi cheap coffee And yes, rhe grass is still blue bla bla bla bla...samples sold out
What happned today? So much coffee available, so much rain and KC still above 3.5?
What happned today? So much coffee available, so much rain and KC still above 3.5?
not really, from my 380 m2 house
If area 330/327,5 broken some more pressure expected with focus 300/295 (maybe well before the Reuters poll forecast year end(
Just broken!
...
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