Market Overview

It’s ironic that I had planned this column a couple of days ago and started writing it yesterday because the very concerns I talk about below are behind the overnight news that Fitch is lowering...

The year-over-year rate of growth in US True Money Supply (TMS) ticked upward in June, that is, the US money supply contracted at a slightly slower pace during the latest month for which there are...

In a surprise move on August 1, credit rating agency Fitch Ratings downgraded U.S. Treasuries to AA+ from AAA. Fitch’s explanation for the downgrade was that it “reflects the expected...

Our recent article warns that a tremendous thirty-year tailwind for corporate earnings is dying down. Consistent corporate interest and tax rate declines significantly boosted stock prices and...

Are we back in 2011 or what?After the US debt ceiling drama earlier this year, we just witnessed a rating agency downgrading the US exactly like in 2011 – back then S&P, this time...

The gap narrowed in July between the expected return for the Global Market Index (GMI), and its trailing 10-year realized performance. Today’s revised long-run forecast for GMI, a global,...

As the market and economy cheer the rise in GDP, we can thank consumer spending: 70% of GDP, services (what consumer pay for in aid, help, or information): 45% of GDP, and government spending: about...

The ECB has a credibility problem. It didn’t last year. Last year it was the Fed with the credibility problem. Today, it’s Christine Lagarde, not Jerome Powell, who needs to justify her...

Dollar rises to three-week high (low for euro) as labor market cools Atlanta’s GDPNow index rises to 3.87%, up from 3.55% Manufacturing contracts for a ninth straight month The US dollar pared...

After the Fed’s decision last week, what are the asset classes that are in play for global macro trading? In this episode, we invited Bruce Liegel, a former hedge fund manager and author of...

(Tuesday market open) The new month starts with stocks tinted red, but this week’s main events are just getting underway.A rise in Treasury yields might have investors nervous early Tuesday as...

Most of the major asset classes continued to rally in July, led by a surge in commodities based on a set of ETFs. US bonds, by contrast, remained the outlier, posting a third straight monthly...

Yen extends losses following BoJ’s surprise bond market intervention Aussie plunges after RBA holds rates, weak Chinese PMI weighs tooDollar stays supported, euro fails to capitalize on strong...

On Tuesday, gold is trading in the area around 1,960, recovering from the previous week's drop to 1,940.The decline was triggered by the strong preliminary GDP data for the second quarter of this year...