Bonds Analysis & Opinion

I've been paying close attention to bonds as the global markets react to rising inflation and global central bank moves recently. The Federal Reserve has yet to take any actions to raise rates, but we...

The 10-year bond market continued to fall today as yields broke the 2% level, highest levels since 2019. The market has been laser focused on the "2%" level in recent months.If you look at the 10-year...

The stern message is that the Fed Funds rate could be raised at any time (which is possible even before the next FOMC meeting on March 16, in my opinion).I would not advise you to listen to those who...

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde roiled government bond markets big time when she said last week that eurozone policymakers can no longer exclude a rate hike this year. This...

Much has transpired in the macro world in the last five weeks ago, most notably the January 5 Fed Minutes that realigned investor perceptions of the Fed’s concern about inflationary...

The Federal Reserve’s plan to start raising interest rates in March—maybe by half a percentage point—is putting bond market analysts in a pickle. Yield on the 2-year Treasury note,...

A perfect storm of an imminent rise in interest rates, unabated inflation, surging infections from the COVID-19 Omicron variant, and the growing possibility Russia will invade Ukraine has unsettled...

Does the chart below suggest yields have topped for now? A weekly candle that fails to close below the 200-WMA after testing it for the 1st time in nearly 2 years could be a tell.Bonds have often...

European investors are wondering how much pressure monetary tightening in the US will exert on the European Central Bank and on EU sovereign bond yields.Odds are growing that the Federal Reserve will...

Nontraditional bond funds aim to avoid losses and earn a return that is uncorrelated with the overall bond market. Such funds deploy several strategies to achieve their objectives, such as investing...

Back on Backlogs… and Bond-Yield Back-Ups: In this chart we map the path of the global backlogs indicator and the US 10-year Treasury yield. I think it’s fair to say that there are a...

A triple whammy from the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy sent Treasuries into a tailspin last week and boosted yields on the 10-year note to 1.77% by Friday. On Monday, yields spiked above...

This post was first published at TopDown Charts The US 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 1.80% recently leading to a host of important intermarket impacts Global yields have also increased, led by a...

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a new pandemic high. The increase signals a higher probability of the benchmark rate pushing above levels reached before the pandemic started in early 2020....