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March came in like a lion and pretty much went out like a lion, too, at least for investors. It was the worst month for U.S. stocks in more than two years, capping off the worst quarter in almost...
In last week’s post, “Is the correction over?” we wrote about the S&P 500's potential for a rally back to the 200-DMA. However, the failure of that test increased short-term concerns. As we noted...
Gold just smashed through $3,150—but how long can the rally hold? With markets bracing for Trump’s next tariff twist, haven demand isn’t going anywhere just yet. Still, even gold might need a...
It could be a challenging week for the markets. April is historically the best month for the stock market, averaging a return of 1.6% since 1945 – the highest of any month, along with December. But...
On Sunday, we reduced the odds of our Roaring 2020s base-case scenario from 65% to 55% and raised the odds of a stagflationary scenario from 35% to 45%. The latter includes the possibility of a...
Measuring shifts in uncertainty is a slippery beast, but it’s easier to intuit when big changes unfold vs. the recent past. We’re knee-deep in one of those moments. One of the tell-tale signs is that...
Last week, we noted that the market performance, while distressing as of late, has been well within regular correctionary market cycles from a historical perspective. To wit: “While Trump’s tariffs...
Well! Can we all say “Gold 3100!” After all, why stop at 3000? For this past Thursday, as Gold’s contract volume rolled from April into that for June came +29 points of fresh price premium and (per...
Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI (49.6 est.) The forecast is for a contraction in the manufacturing sector in March. January and February results were above 50 (expansion) after almost three straight...
You’d never know it looking at the sentiment data, but the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) is down just -4.91% YTD. This weekly chart of the S&P 500 from Worden shows a potential downside to the S&P...
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