ING Economic and Financial Analysis

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic GarveyThe tension between markets eyeing a change in the rating cycle discount and central banks pushing back should raise volatility. Today's US CPI can provide the...

The dollar starts the week quietly and is holding onto gains made after Fed Chair Jay Powell served up a reminder that the hiking cycle is still live. For this week, the FX market will be focusing on...

By Padhraic GarveyThe US 10-year auction tailed, but the bond bulls don't seem to care. It looks like the market is playing with a change in the rate cycle discount. It's not illogical, but likely a...

The data calendar remains quiet across developed markets, but we are hearing more from central bankers. Fed speakers have delivered hawkish comments, emphasizing the fight against inflation and...

By Padhraic GarveyAs we hold above 4.5% for the US 10-year, the immediate issue is 10-year and 30-year auctions. Beyond that into next week, prepare for a big drop in US headline inflation. Then...

November and December are normally soft months for the dollar. This year, however, the tailwind from strong US growth and hawkish Fed policy should keep the dollar bid through to year-endFed-Driven...

By Padhraic Garvey and Benjamin SchroederThe Rally In Long-End Rates Extended With the Curve Flattening AcceleratingOverall, we have now seen a drop of close to 30bp in 10-Year and longer yields over...

It seems investors are starting to think that the Fed is done with rate hikes and are now starting to reduce underweight positions in risk assets, including emerging market currencies. This is dollar...

Even though it was a hawkish hold, the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged for a second meeting in a row has seen interest rate volatility drop and high-yielding currencies start to perform well...

The Fed’s decision to keep interest rate hikes on pause for a second consecutive time has bolstered economic sentiment and supported commodity prices, including energy and metals. Fresh mine...

The monthly GDP numbers have been highly volatile, but we do expect slower growth over the coming months as the cooler jobs market and higher rates continue to biteThe UK economy contracted by half a...

The oil market rallied yesterday on the back of a constructive OPEC report. Today, all attention will be on the IEA’s monthly oil report and whether the agency shares the same view as OPECEnergy...

The USDA’s latest monthly WASDE report was constructive for wheat as adverse weather in Australia, Canada and the EU is expected to tighten global supply. However, the release was more bearish...

Markets are torn. Will the ECB hike this week or not? We think it will, but we look at how different scenarios can impact rates and FX. Even in our base case, we suspect that convincing markets that...

Energy markets remain well supported. ICE Brent is holding above US$90/bbl as the market tightens, whilst extended maintenance in Norway has supported European gas pricesEnergy - Middle Distillate...

We rationalize why US longer tenor rates are rising – basically, the curve is inverted and getting used to discounting structurally higher rates. If so, reversion to a normal curve must mean...