ING Economic and Financial Analysis

By Benjamin SchroederA large sense of anticipation ahead of data dominates thinking, but so too do technical issues like the ongoing unwind of the March rate cut in the US and the rebuild of the...

The dollar strengthened across the board yesterday with no clear catalyst. We suspect that in an environment that keeps pricing large Fed cuts, USD rallies aren’t very sustainable. We’ll...

The dollar is softer and pro-cyclical currencies are following the yuan higher after news that China is preparing a CNY 2tn rescue package for the stock market. The BoJ revised inflation expectations...

FX markets start the week in a quiet fashion. The highlight this week will be central bank meetings in many parts of the world, including Japan and the eurozone. No major changes are expected in...

By Benjamin SchroederMarkets continue to discount early rate cuts, but central banks are pushing back against premature cuts and stressing the data-dependent approach. Long-end rates continue to drift...

Tensions in the Middle East continue to linger, however, comments from a Fed official and a surge in the USD yesterday held large parts of the commodity complex backEnergy – Red Sea Tensions...

A combination of weak China data and a pushback by both ECB and Fed officials against early easing is weighing on risk sentiment and supporting the dollar. It is hard to see that sentiment changing...

By Benjamin SchroederEUR curves bear flattened at the start of the week with the European Central Bank leaning against aggressive market pricing. The message remains consistent – much of the...

Asian equity markets and currencies are under a little pressure today and have cast a slightly risk-off tone across global FX markets. Economic data is light, but we do hear from some central bank...

Spot US natural gas prices spiked higher on Friday on the back of cold weather across large parts of the US. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East remain elevated following US and UK airstrikes in...

Investors have cemented Fed easing expectations despite some hotter-than-expected US data. We suspect a market reluctant to price out rate cuts will need strong words from the Fed – perhaps...

Geopolitical risks continue to grow in the Middle East with the US and UK carrying out airstrikes against Houthis in Yemen. Potentially more concerning for oil markets is Iran having seized an oil...

Rate expectations were not moved by slightly hotter-than-expected US CPI, and support for the dollar has mostly come through the risk-sentiment channel. Range-bound trading may persist despite...

Oil prices came under pressure yesterday with a bearish EIA inventory report, while European gas prices found some support given developments in the Red Sea. Meanwhile, the share of Russian aluminium...

We expect a consensus 0.3% MoM core inflation reading in the US today. We see the rise in the USD/JPY as an indication that fast money is probably positioned for a stronger figure, meaning there are...

By Benjamin Schroeder10Y Bunds got pushed back to 2.2% but still struggled to move past that hurdle despite a heavy supply slate. The same goes for the 10Y UST at 4% ahead of tomorrow’s...