ING Economic and Financial Analysis

In a somewhat surprising move, the Fed has acknowledged recent disinflation trends and poured gasoline on the fire of easing expectations for 2024. The news has understandably been greeted by global...

By Benjamin SchroederMarket expectations of policy easing for the next year are about to get tested tonight with the Federal Reserve likely to signal that there is still a job to get done. Yesterday's...

It is now a very consensus view that the Fed will push back against rate cut expectations. We expect the Dot Plots will show only 50bp of cuts in 2024. Still, markets may feel less comfortable about...

By Benjamin SchroederPayrolls day is usually pivotal. This one more than most, as the US 10-year has fallen sharply from 5% down towards 4% without material evidence of any labor market recession. We...

The big yen rally has been exacerbated by positioning factors, but markets may keep speculating on a BoJ December hike unless Japanese officials protest against hawkish bets before the meeting. A...

The Fed last raised rates in July and we think that marked the peak. There is growing evidence that tight monetary policy and restrictive credit conditions are having the desired effect on depressing...

By Benjamin SchroederThe 10-Year UST yield is closing in on the 4% mark as if a weak jobs report tomorrow was a given. But underlying is also a further slide of inflation expectations. The front end...

Ahead of tomorrow's US jobs data release, the short-term highlight in the FX market is the continued outperformance of the yen. This has nothing to do with a risk-averse environment (asset markets are...

By Benjamin SchroederThe fair value number for the US 10-year yield is 4%, but we really need to see Friday's payrolls number first. The bond market is screaming at us that it'll be weak. But unless...

The dollar has shown resilience after disappointing JOLTS job openings data yesterday, leaving EUR/USD under pressure as the euro’s idiosyncratic negatives fuel bearish momentum. Today, the Bank...

Supportive fundamentals, lingering geopolitical risks and expectations of Federal Reserve easing suggest the complex will trend higher next year. However, with plenty of uncertainty over global...

Markets have scaled back some dovish bets on the Fed at the start of this week, perhaps starting to position more cautiously ahead of a Fed pushback and key data releases. Today, JOLTS and ISM...

The dollar starts the week in a mixed fashion. USD/JPY is trading at a new corrective low, while EUR/USD continues to lick its wounds after a torrid session on Friday. The highlight of this week's...

By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic GarveyFinancial conditions eased markedly through November, as market rates fell and credit spreads tightened (record month for bond returns). The recessionary...

OPEC+ and soft eurozone inflation triggered a dollar rebound yesterday, but short-term rate spreads were already pointing to a weaker EUR/USD before then. Today, the focus will be on the US ISM...

By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic GarveyThe rates rally found its confirmation in German and Spanish inflation data ahead of today's eurozone release, but finally seemed to pause after more hawkish...