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We’re now in week two of serious disruption as a result of the coronavirus, and the markets are in the middle of what’s looking like an extremely steep crash. Only 1987 can compare, and...
In China for the last two months, retail sales are down 21%, industrial production is down 13%, and fixed investment is down 25%. The travel, restaurant and entertainment industries both in the U.S....
It’s an understatement to say that this paste week was particularly wild, and we’ve seen global chaos from the coronavirus’ spread lead to a rapid and mindless downturn in the...
Nothing like getting texted at dinner last night about how the Dow futures were down over 1,000 points. Then I get home and they’re at lockdown 1,300 points – down 5% for all three major,...
You know my position on China by now. It has over-expanded, urbanized to0 rapidly and, has excess capacity in everything from empty condos to cement factories. It is the epicenter of the greatest and...
The markets on crack have largely ignored the coronavirus, which obviously could be a potential game changer. And now they react, down 2,600 points on the Dow, as soon as it hits a “white...
I have been talking recently about how this final blow-off rally since the sharp 20%+ crash into late December 2018 is tracking very close to the one that occurred from late October 1998 into late...
You know the saying: There’s more than one way to skin a cat.Well, in the financial world, it’s important to remember that there’s more than one way for the Fed to run quantitative...
I just saw an update of John Hussman’s infamous model that shows a very clear correlation between stock valuations, defined as stock prices over U.S. economic gross value-added, and 12-year...
This week, I want to keep talking about the most important thing that’s been happening since mid-September of 2019: the way the Fed has had to step and combat the repo crisis, which came in...
In the past, I have shown that we were at the highs for key valuation indicators even though we were not for the current favorite: the Shiller CAPE P/E Ratio. That was 44 at the top in early 2000 and...
It’s important to note that, historically, the first five days of market action are indicative of the direction we’ll take for the next 12 months. And already things have been somewhat...
I knew this repo crisis would require more injections, but it wasn’t easy to get clear data on just how many it would take. I was trying to identify how much money has gone into propping up the...
On Monday, I talked about how global growth is slowing even with the leaders of the emerging world: first China, now India. But the flip side is that Asia will be the dominant leader for the next...
How can the same houses go up far faster than inflation for decades, and that possibly be good for an economy? It only benefits older people who bought earlier, and the affluent who buy the most...
I always remind people and economists that Japan was the first Asian Tiger – the first to urbanize rapidly on an S-Curve to $40,000+ GDP per capita PPP and DC (developing country) status in just...
Years ago, I had to adjust my real estate model for di-ers, as homes last near forever and di-ers are forced sellers that can overwhelm and offset the younger peak buyers into age 42-43 in recent...