Danske Markets

Today, I focus on the current shocks and the future risks facing the global economy and financial system: Italy, Brexit and the Fed.An Italian debt crisis is , in my view , the biggest risk facing the...

Market Movers aheadIn the euro area, focus will remain on the Italian budget turmoil and the ECB meeting on Thursday. We will get the first indication of Q4 GDP with the flash PMI. In the US, the...

With less than three weeks to go, the Democrats are still leading significantly in the opinion polls. FiveThirtyEight models still point towards a divided Congress (79% probability of the Republicans...

After all these yearsCould a rate hike in December trigger flows into fixed mortgages? The krona might find support from the Riksbank next week. To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File...

After all these yearsCould a rate hike in December trigger flows into fixed mortgages? The krona might find support from the Riksbank next week. To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File...

Market movers today Focus today will remain on Italy after yesterday's official response to Italy's 2019 budget (see below). While it is still early days to see another blink from Italy (after Tria's...

As expected, there was no withdrawal agreement at yesterday's Brexit working dinner (negotiations broke down on Sunday). The EU leaders also said that the possible extraordinary EU summit in November...

Market movers today Markets will keep an eye on the EU summit in Brussels where focus remains on the Brexit negotiations. Furthermore, migration and reforms to deepen the EMU - where progress during...

Market movers today Today, market focus will be on Brexit negotiations ahead of a working dinner kicking off the EU summit over the next two days. In our view, the likelihood of a deal on the...

The US bond market has been setting the direction in global bond markets over the past two weeks. Since the beginning of September, 10Y US Treasury yields have jumped more than 30bp to currently...

Market movers today Brexit remains in focus also today: extended discussions around the Brexit strategy are likely to dominate today's UK cabinet meeting after negotiations with the EU broke down...

EUR/NOK. EUR/NOK has re-settled in the lower end of the 9.40-9.60 range following a turbulent period where fading NOK headwinds were countered by a dovish Norges Bank and tumbling risk sentiment....

Following upbeat inflation data last week, we have revised our inflation outlook (see charts 1 and 2 below). As a result, we now expect the Riksbank to deliver two hikes up to July next year. We...

Market movers today The US Treasury is set to release its biannual report on FX manipulation. We do not expect the report to designate China a currency manipulator, as China meets only one of the...

IMM Positioning Update - Despite short covering 10Y Treasury positioning remains in stretched territoryThe latest IMM data covers the week from 2 September to 9 October 2018 To read the entire report...

In this note, we take a closer look at the recent move and the outlook for US yields. We decompose long yields into 1) a term-premium and nominal interest rate expectations and 2) into break-even...