Danske Markets

Election Day is fast approaching and opinion polls continue to look good for the Democrats. Still, FiveThirtyEight models indicate a divided Congress as there is an 85% probability that the Democrats...

Debt ceiling USD liquidity arithmetic On 1 March 2019, the current debt ceiling suspension is due to expire. As seen on previous occasions, most recently in 2017, this is likely to be followed by a...

Oil prices move higher over supply concerns We have seen some substantial fluctuations in the oil price since the start of September. The concerns seem to be supply-driven, as sanctions on Iran have...

Especially the NOK spot has been remarkable stable recently despite a sell-off in equities and oil. Tactically, we still favour staying short EUR/NOK (see Reading the Markets Norway ).However, from a...

Market movers today Today is relatively quiet in terms of scheduled data releases in an otherwise busy week. We will get US PCE core, where we expect 1.90% y/y - a number that will fit nicely with the...

Market movers aheadIn the US , the most important release is the jobs report for October on Friday, where we look for further signs that wage growth is accelerating. The focus remains on the ongoing...

Upward pressure on the Fed funds rate continues and it now equals the IOER. Likely to see another 20bp 'adjustment' hike to IOER in December, but more importantly, it may speed up the Fed's discussion...

Riksbank close to hiking, but sees downside risksAre our trading recommendations exposed to a slowdown in growth? No surprises from the Debt Office Confidence melancholy? SEK held back by costly rate...

Market movers today Today, S&P may publish its rating decision on Italy. We expect that the S&P will change the outlook to negative but keep the rating unchanged. This should have modest...

ECB didn't formally announce an end to the APP by the end of the year. No questions on first rate hike. The strong forward guidance of 'rates remain at present levels at least through the summer of...

Market movers today The equity rout has continued overnight and will be the main focus of all markets today, see more below. In the euro area, we have the ECB Governing Council meeting , which we...

Market movers today The main event today is the Riksbank meeting which will also see the release of new forecasts. On the back of inflation prints on track with its forecasts and inflation...

Market movers today It is a very light calendar day, so market focus will remain on Italy and the situation in the Middle East and the killing of the Saudi Arabian journalist. Yesterday, Italy sent a...

Overall, in the Scandi FX volatility sphere, few changes from last week. Two-week USD/SEK and USD/NOK volatilities are slightly higher as this tenor now covers the US midterm election.The modest event...

Market movers today With no big data in the calendar today, markets will continue to focus on Italy, Brexit and the coming ECB meeting on Thursday, see preview . Today around noon, the Italian...

The latest IMM data covers the week from 9 September to 16 October 2018To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below..