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Buy SGB1047 (1 Dec 2020) in ASW spread after recent tightening.Expect widening ahead of year end as in previous years. In addition, the supply of short SGBs and T-bills will be supportive. Carry in...
The Finnish economy is set to slow down in 2019, but growth is still broad based, which has a positive impact on employment and public finances. We have lowered our unemployment rate forecast to 7.3%...
Market movers todayThe development in US-Chinese trade tension remains in focus after US President Trump announced another USD200bn worth of tariffs last night. In Scandi, Swedish August LFS is due to...
EUR/DKK has risen above 7.46038 for the first time since 2016. We forecast EUR/DKK to decline to 7.4525 in 3M (NYSE:MMM) and trade at 7.4550 on 6-12M. We recommend DKK based clients with a hedging...
Trump is expected to implement the second round of tariffs on an additional USD200bn of imported goods from China either later today or tomorrow.Trump's purpose seems to be to put China under...
We continue to see modest upward pressure on yields and rates in Europe in 2019. The first ECB rate hike is moving closer and the ECB QE programme is widely expected to have ended. The latter has...
The front end of the EUR/NOK impl. vol curve has spiked higher driven by a repricing of this week's Norges Bank (NB) meeting.Given what is already in the NOK rates space, we think the current event...
EUR/NOK. Norges Bank hiking rates is to us an important fundamental trigger for the next leg lower in the overvalued EUR/NOK. We also think markets underestimate the Norges Bank hike outlook due to...
The Riksbank minutes suggest that the doves are now taking a more neutral stance.Stable inflation expectations at 2% play a crucial role. Headline inflation at target for almost couple of years is...
Market movers todayIn Sweden , the highlight of the day will be the minutes from the 6 September Riksbank meeting, which will be scrutinised for clues about the next policy step. We will look for an...
Market Movers ahead We look for more stabilisation in the Euro Flash PMI released on Friday. On the trade war front, we wait to see whether the US and China re-enter talks or whether Donald Trump...
The main news in the US labour market report last week was a 2.9% jump in wage growth. It was the highest level in close to 10 years and suggests a tight labour market is starting to feed into higher...
GDP suddenly less upbeat. SEK curve flattening - a matter of timing and size. Shift from 3s7s flattener/box to 1Y forward 2s10s curve/box. SEK: A weak government is coming. Trades New , receive SEK...
Market movers today In Sweden , we are due to get inflation numbers. We expect around 0.1 percentage point higher inflation for August than the Riksbank's new forecasts, both for headline CPIF and...
Starting on 17 September (depending on market conditions) Stadshypotek is set to introduce a new benchmark loan (SE0011063015) that matures on 1 March 2024 and will fit between SHYP1587 (June 2023)...
ECB didn't deliver new policy signals during today's meeting, which on the face of it was rather uneventful. As usual, the devil is in the detail and today's meeting highlighted risks 'gaining more...
As expected, the Bank of England (BoE) voted unanimously to keep the Bank Rate at 0.75%. As it was one of the small meetings without an updated Inflation Report or press conference and following last...