Market movers today
The US Treasury is set to release its biannual report on FX manipulation. We do not expect the report to designate China a currency manipulator, as China meets only one of the three criteria. See Flash Comment - Will the US label China a currency manipulator? Not likely , 10 October .
Today is the deadline for the Italian government to present its 2019 budget draft to the European Commission. In light of overly optimistic growth assumptions, significant fiscal weakening and many open questions on the financing side, our base case is now that the Commission will voice a negative opinion and ask for a revision of the budget.
In terms of data released, US September retails sales and the Empire Manufacturing Index are the most interesting on the calendar today. Consumer optimism remains high in the US and we expect private consumption to remain the most important growth driver.
Markets will also keep an eye on the Brexit negotiations, which are entering a hot phase this week, especially after the apparent stalemate over the weekend. So, it is uncertain whether an agreement will be reached ahead of the EU summit starting on Thursday.
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