Market movers today
The equity rout has continued overnight and will be the main focus of all markets today, see more below.
In the euro area, we have the ECB Governing Council meeting , which we expect to be a meeting with little action, see ECB Preview - vigorous Draghi, moderate inflation , 22 October 2018. Since the last meeting, incoming data has not warranted a change in policies, not least the wording on ending its asset purchase program (APP). Therefore, we expect, the word 'anticipate' to remain. Should it be changed (meaning an official end to APP), it could lead to a knee-jerk market reaction, but without long-lasting implications. Furthermore, we expect a 'vigorous' Mario Draghi, pointing to continued solid wage dynamics but still somewhat moderate inflation assessment.
In Germany, the IFO business climate for October is on the agenda today, which has defied the recent downward trend in the PMI, and it will be interesting to see whether this divergence persists in Q4.
Norges Bank holds its rate-setting meeting , where we do not expect any new signals emerging from the meeting, which is only an 'interim' one, with no new monetary report, only a press release and the Executive Board's assessment, see our preview .
In Sweden, the Debt Office releases its new forecasts . The period since the previous DO forecast (June-September) borrowing has been close to the forecast, just a SEK2bn deviation. Hence, there is currently no reason to expect any significant change to the DO's forecasts. In Sweden, there is also a bunch of data due, such as NIER's October confidence survey and September data for PPI and household lending. For more on Scandi see next page.
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