Market movers today
The main event today is the November labour market report in the US. We expect non-farm payrolls to post another healthy gain of 240,000, which is a bit above consensus and the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 5.8% in line with consensus, see US labour market: improvement to continue , 2 December 2014. That said, there is downside risk from the weather that has been unusually cold in the US in November. The weaker-than-expected ADP private employment report released earlier this week also suggests that there could be some downside risk to our forecast. Watch out for signs of a pick-up in wage growth that remains subdued at just 2.0% y/y.
German factory orders are the first hard data released for October. We expect factory orders to improve slightly for the second month in a row, showing tentative signs of stabilisation, as the uncertainty in connection with Ukraine and Russia weighs less on particularly investments.
In the euro area revised Q3 GDP will be released together with its sub-components. We expect data to show that fixed investment continued to contract in Q3, while private consumption continued to increase modestly.
In Denmark and Sweden industrial production for October is due for release.
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