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Main focus on the drop in 5Y5Y inflation expectations that are again far below the ECB's 2%-targetThe lower oil price and stronger EUR are threatening the ECB's outlook for higher inflation Core...
Market Movers Focus continues to be on the Emerging Markets rout and moves in the oil price. Tentative signs of stabilisation have emerged but uncertainty is still high. Euro area money and credit...
Short term downside potential limited with FED postponed to December.Strategically, we remain bearish on GBP/USD on a 3 to 6 month's horizon. Tactically, GBP/USD is oversold and we take an early...
1. Financial collapse in China but no hard landing (slides 3-5).2. Demand, policy response set to support oil prices in Q4 (slides 7-10). 3. Fed hike postponed but shocks not enough to derail recovery...
The past month has been hard on the global oil market and base metals market with prices for Brent crude and LME copper 3M falling to the lowest levels since 2008 and 2009, respectively. As we wrote...
Market Movers Following a sharp sell-off in US stocks late in yesterday's trading session, focus today will be on whether European markets will take another turn for the worse. Data on US oil...
Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) today cut its leading interest rate by 25bp and the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for commercial banks by 50bp. This was the fifth interest rate cut since November last...
We adjust our EUR/SEK target, stop-loss on market turmoil, Riksbank Fundamentally, we are bullish SEK and clients should stay short EUR/SEK Strategy On Monday, we recommended clients to sell...
Last week's bear market did not leave the European credit indices unscathed. The index for European investment grade credits (iTraxx main) traded around 77bp on Monday, compared with around 68bp a...
Market Movers Focus remains on Emerging Markets and the spill-over to global equity markets, although there are some signs of stabilisation this morning (see below). Today ECB's vice president...
Amid tumbling commodity prices, the Riksbank inflation outlook is becoming more and more challenging. The rapid increase in the RB inflation path during autumn is largely reflecting assumed base...
We are revising selective currencies in light of our view that Fed rate hikes will be postponed to December and the oil price collapse. We have been stopped out of our long-held short EUR/USD trade in...
The latest IMM data cover the week from 12 to 18 August 2015. While EUR/USD became a slightly less stretched pair according to IMM positioning in the week to 18 August - and this may have continued...
This week the scorecard recommends buying AUD, CAD and GBP while selling NZD, SEK and NOK.Last week's signals resulted in 1.3% loss. The short SEK was expensive, while the long JPY and SEK performed...
A quantitative run through of the Swedish fixed income market, starting with the Riksbank and money markets before moving on to government and mortgage bonds. To Read the Entire Report Please Click on...
In Sweden on Wednesday the NIER will publish its new forecasts (09.15 CEST) and business and consumer confidence (09.00 CEST). We will of course scour the tables for indications of rising wages and...
We see EUR/SEK trading within a range of 9.30-9.60. Fair value implied by relative rates and QE is a bit below 9.40 We sell EUR/SEK for a target of 9.30Strategy We argue that EUR/SEK has established a...