Market Movers
Focus remains on Emerging Markets and the spill-over to global equity markets, although there are some signs of stabilisation this morning (see below).
Today ECB's vice president Constancio will speak. His comments will be followed closely in light of the equity sell-off and as the drop in the oil price is threatening the ECB's outlook for higher inflation. Focus is likely to be on the drop in market-based 5Y5Y inflation expectations, which could result in a more dovish tone from the ECB.
In Germany, we expect a small increase in Ifo expectations in line with last week's positive surprise in the German manufacturing PMI. The PMI figure suggests GDP growth will strengthen in Q3 after disappointing a bit in Q2, when low investments and higher inventories were a headwind to activity.
US consumer confidence should be supported by solid job growth and lower gasoline prices. We expect Conference Board consumer confidence to rebound to 92.3 in August after it dropped almost nine points in July to 90.9.
In Scandinavia focus will be on the Norwegian Q3 oil investment survey, which will attract attention, as the recession in the oil-related sectors has slowed domestic growth.
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