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Market Movers Focus continues to be on the Emerging Markets rout and the development in commodity prices. Fed's Dennis Lockhart will speak tonight. The subject is pensions and economy and it is...
Market movers ahead In the US we now believe that the stress in emerging markets will be enough for the Fed to postpone its first rate hike from September to December. Next week the FOMC members will...
Although domestic economic data is moving in the right direction, the increased uncertainty on global growth and inflation over the past month is likely to keep the Fed off the trigger at the...
A calendar of key events in the Commodities Market for the week ahead.To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below
EM turmoil is a real cause for concern.The scale of the crisis is wider than the EM scares we had in 2013 and 2014. Falling commodity prices, Chinese depreciation and weaker EM growth are additional...
The bottom line first: The added liquidity provided by the EBC's TLTRO programme will continue to support credit spreads going into the second half of 2015. However, we see several factors that could...
China's flash Caixin (previously HSBC) manufacturing PMI declined in August to 47.1 (consensus: 48.2) from a final reading of 47.8 in July. This is the lowest level since March 2009.There was weakness...
Market Movers We expect the August euro area manufacturing PMI to surprise on the upside and increase to 52.6 to mark a new high for this year. The order/inventory balance suggests an increase and...
Portfolio update.Two central banks in focus. Riksbank purchase programme set to affect market/pricing. A more positive attitude to covered bonds. Some potential remains further out on the money market...
FX Quant Strategy provides a quantitative overview of the currency market, including several valuation tools and monitors, focusing on the FX options market.This week we recommend two FX option...
Market Movers After the major decline on Monday into recessionary territory of the US Empire manufacturing index for August, we will get a more reliable check on the state of the manufacturing sector...
The minutes of the 28-29 July FOMC meeting, which was released early due to a mistake by Bloomberg, showed an FOMC which remained undetermined on the timing of the first rate hike. Arguing against a...
Market Movers The key release today is the US CPI for July. Core CPI inflation has shown signs of bottoming lately and we expect another solid print. We look for a 0.2% m/m increase which would take...
Today’s increase in core CPI is a one-off driven by base effects.CPI is set to fall again and GDP to suffer from the Bank of England’s inflation focus.Sell GBP/USD on a Fed rate hike and...
UK CPI inflation increased to 0.1% y/y in July, from 0.0% y/y in June (Danske Bank 0.1% y/y, consensus 0.0%). The small increase in CPI inflation was due mainly to the timing of summer sales last...
During last week's trading, European credit indices widened, albeit at a fairly subdued pace. The index for European investment grade credits (iTraxx main) ended up trading at around 68bp on Friday,...
Market Movers In the UK, we believe CPI inflation increased to 0.1% y/y in July from 0.0% y/y in June. We think that core CPI inflation increased to 0.9% y/y in July from 0.8% in June. The Bank of...