Danske Markets

While the US economy should be ready for it, the Fed is not geared up to deliver the first rate hike this week in our view. No hike and lower 'dots' will guide the initial reaction in EUR/USD and send...

The UK labour market report released today was more or less in line with expectations . Average weekly earnings excluding bonuses (3M) increased slightly to 2.9% y/y in July (Danske Bank estimate...

What to make of the dots, numbers and words, we do the data crunching and give our view on implications for FX, rates and equity markets.Following the FOMC meeting, we will host a conference call,...

Market Movers At 9:30 CET the Minutes from the Riksbank rate decision will be released. The question is whether these are as confident on inflation, inflation expectations and the global economic...

One of the most important events for the global fixed income market this autumn is the FOMC meeting later this week. We believe the greater uncertainty about global growth and the deflationary effects...

EUR/NOK. We expect relative rates to be a NOK negative in the coming month, as we anticipate Norges Bank to lower the sight deposit rate by 25bp on 24 September and signal a high probability of...

Buy SGBi3107 and sell SGBi3102 in a BEI flattener@ 42.5bp. P/L: 20bp/60bp. 1m Carry -6bp. We have argued on a few occasions that the Riksbank can impact inflation short term through the exchange rate....

UK CPI inflation declined to 0.0% y/y in August, from 0.1% y/y in July (Danske Bank 0.0% y/y, consensus 0.0%). Core inflation dropped to 1.0% y/y in August from 1.2% y/y in July, in line with...

After the European wheat harvest, attention turns to the Australian wheat output, with the risk of dry El Niño weather approaching in the coming months.The spread between CBOT wheat and Matiff...

The Finnish economic outlook has weakened once again. GDP growth of 0.2% in Q2 was the slowest among euro area economies. Exports are taking longer than expected to resume growth and rising...

Last week the European credit market moved more or less sideways. iTraxx Main was unchanged at 71bp, while iTraxx Crossover widened marginally to 329bp.Thursday was one of the busiest day on the...

Market Movers US retail sales is the main market mover today. We expect another solid increase in the core retail sales measure (ex autos, gasoline and building materials) of 0.3% m/m (in line with...

The latest IMM data covers the week from 1 September to 8 September 2015 .IMM positioning data released on Friday show that speculators re-added bearish EUR bets last week . Measured as a percentage...

This week the scorecard recommends buying CAD, JPY and USD while selling AUD, NZD and GBP.Last week's signals resulted in 0.9% gain. Especially the short JPY performed well. Next scorecard signals...

Market Movers A very quiet day on the data front today. Main release is euro area industrial production, where we look for a soft number of 0.1% m/m (consensus 0.2% m/m) after weak production figures...

In Sweden, the week ahead is made for contemplation, as the only thing of any market interest is the Riksbank minutes from the last monetary policy meeting. And it will actually be worthwhile to read...