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We see a case for reflation in the US but less so in the euro area.We expect US reflation to lead to a further rise in equities, higher bond yields and a stronger USD over the next six months. To read...
Since our last issue of Yield Forecast Update, we have seen a pronounced rise in yields both in Europe and in the US and we have seen a clear steepening of the curve 2Y10Y and 5Y10Y. However, it is...
There are no significant key economic data releases due today, but there are speeches expected from the ECB's Mario Draghi and Bundesbank's Jens Weidmann as well as several speeches from the Fed's...
How steep can SEK yield curves get?Keep an eye on price expectations in the NIER survey To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below
The rise in USD/CNY mainly reflects a stronger USD. The CNY basket is broadly unchanged lately. However, we expect a further rise in USD/CNY to 7.3 in 12M. The move will be a red flag for Donald Trump...
US CPI data for October is due out at 14:30. In line with consensus, we estimate the core CPI index increased 0.2% m/m in October (2.2% y/y), while we estimate that the headline index increased by...
EUR/USD. We lower our EUR/USD forecasts to 1.05 in 1M (1.09 previously), 1.04 in 3M (1.08), 1.08 in 6M (1.11) and 1.12 in 12M (1.15). Over the next one to three months, we expect the prospect of a...
US October manufacturing production data is due out at 15:15 CET. It will be interesting to see whether the positive signals from the ISM and Markit PMI manufacturing indices will be visible in the...
The latest IMM data cover the week from 1 November to 8 November 2016.To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below
It is going to be a busy day ahead, with plenty of key economic data. We have Q3 GDP growth data for Norway and Denmark, Swedish and UK CPI inflation data for October, German ZEW expectations, EU and...
Kommuninvest will start introducing a new loan on November 15 (depending on market conditions). The loan matures on 1 June 2022, matching SGB1054.The coupon rate is set to 0.25% and the ISIN code is...
Today is a very quiet day in terms of data releases. The most important event will be the speech from the ECB's Mario Draghi, due at 16:00 CET in Rome. We wrote about the ECB's Headaches recently (28...
In Sweden , inflation figures are due out (Tuesday, 09:30 CET) and we estimate an outcome just a tad below what the Riksbank is estimating. On Wednesday (08:00 CET) Prospera inflation expectations are...
Donald Trump will have a strong mandate to implement his policy agenda after his sweeping victory.Large infrastructure spending and tax cuts in the US are in the pipeline. Fixed income markets are set...
GBP has rallied significantly since Trump won the US presidential election. A closer economic relationship between the UK and US in the future justifies a lower Brexit risk premium priced on GBP.We...
Market movers ahead Next week, the primary focus will remain on the Donald Trump win and any news on what to expect from the new Trump administration next year. Following the initial sell-off in...
This is the fourth document based on a trip to China this autumn. We look at China's challenges relating to overcapacity and the lack of reform of inefficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs).To read...