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The TRY has been hit by a perfect storm of negative domestic developments and foreign factors, including a stronger USD, higher oil prices (affecting the current account negatively) and higher US...
It is a quiet day in terms of data releases and market participants are likely to be in some state of wait-and-see mode ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow (see more on our expectation and view on the...
Key themes The election of Donald Trump as the next US president and the decision of OPEC and Russia to cut output have led to a sharp rally in base metal and oil prices the past month. The market is...
Today, there will be an Ecofin meeting in Brussels and any comments on the political situation in Italy will be scrutinised.Today, the third estimate for euro area GDP is due to be released. In this...
The latest IMM data cover the week from 22 to 29 November 2016To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below
In Sweden , the week ahead is about industrial data (Wednesday, at 09:30 CET) and not much else. Given positive survey data and the optimistic forward-looking content in the GDP release we expect...
In the US, the main release today is the ISM non-manufacturing index for November. We think the index is at a reasonable level and expect only a small increase from 54.8 to 55.0.The Fed's Dudley and...
Since the November 8thelection, the NYSE has seen seventeen trading sessions, with the Dow Jones closing at new all-time highs in nine of them. I’m not going to argue with success, but seeing...
The jobs report for November was quite mixed. Employment grew 178,000 in November in line with the recent trend and without any major revisions to previous months.The unemployment rate fell against...
Market movers ahead Focus is on the Italian referendum held on Sunday. A 'No' seems most likely to us but we would not expect this to result in 'Italexit' or a major sell-off in Italian government...
The global recovery is gathering pace and is likely to continue in 2017.Long-term yields are set to rise further with reflation, primarily in the US. Despite a fragile OPEC deal, oil prices are likely...
Market movers today Today, the US jobs report for November due out at 14:30 CET will be the main focus. Despite the moderate headline employment growth of 161,000, the October US jobs report was...
Four themes, nine trades and a wild card For the eighth time, we present our year-end FX Top Trades for the coming year. We base the 2016 publication on four themes we think will drive FX performance...
1. Synchronized recovery 2. Reflation 3. European policy uncertainty 4. Trump - what policies and when? and 5. ECB policy - tapering or not?To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File...
In the US, focus will be on the ISM manufacturing index figure for November today. We estimate the index increased to 53.3 in November from 51.9 in October in line with the Markit PMI manufacturing...
We estimate non-farm payrolls increased by 170,000 in November in line with the recent trend and more or less in line with the consensus of 180,000.We estimate an unchanged unemployment rate at 4.9%...
OPEC has agreed to cut output to 32.5mb/d effective from 1 January 2017.The deal is contingent on contribution of 600kb/d cuts from non-OPEC producers. The announcement has led the price of Brent...