Cumberland Advisors

The global market story of 2013 was clearly right here in the US, with total returns for the S&P 500 topping 30% (SPY ETF covering S&P 500 as of Dec. 23, Bloomberg). The other world markets...

As the end of 2013 approaches, the global economy is still suffering from the financial crisis of 2008 and subsequent deep recession. Global economic growth slowed from 3.2% last year to an estimated...

In response to my commentary on Monday, a reader opined that there were even more basic implications of the Fed’s reverse repo experiment than I had suggested.  Indeed, his comments...

The GoodAfter the bond market sell-off in June and July, which saw unprecedented bond redemptions, it's the intermediate- and longer-maturity bond yields that are the most attractive they've been in...

Thursday’s WSJ cited a draft paper by Brian Sack (former manager of the FOMC’s open market desk at the NY Fed) and Joseph Gagnon (a former senior officer at the Board of Governors). ...

The Netherlands has lost its triple A credit rating by Standard & Poor’s, leaving just Germany, Finland, and Luxembourg in the Eurozone at the highest level. The downgrade to AA+ is ironic,...

Yesterday, December 3, 2013, a federal judge ruled that the city of Detroit met the legal criteria to file for relief under chapter 9 of the Bankruptcy Code and win protection from its creditors. The...

Last week, I published two articles, on Zero Hedge and Breitbart, respectively, that highlight the issue of “financial repression” via low interest rates. Below is an exchange with my...

Last week the OECD published their revised outlook for the global economy for 2014 and 2015. Global growth for this year is marked down to 2.7% and to 3.6% in 2014. The nearly half-a-percentage-point...

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes stimulated lots of discussion in the media and blogosphere. Cumberland’s Chief Monetary Economist, Robert Eisenbeis, discussed this in his recent note. Here...

A look at the energy markets shows that the prices of the US benchmark oil (WTI) and the international or European benchmark oil (Brent) have been falling since the middle of August 2013. These are...

Janet Yellen did well in her Senate hearing. Markets have settled on the notion that Federal Reserve policy is not going to lurch abruptly in a new and surprising direction. The results are to (1)...

Janet Yellen had an easy time at her confirmation hearing to be chair of the Federal Reserve. The questioning had a perfunctory tone, suggesting that she had satisfactorily answered the tough...

To start, we praise the women and men of the armed forces of the United States as we remember them today. The freedom of our nation depends on them. Now to markets. Three dynamics are at work this...

First we will try to summarize the politics. The political damage the Republicans inflicted upon themselves during the shutdown, debt-limit, sequester debate has now morphed into political damage the...

There has been a recent flurry of activity regarding Puerto Rico, involving their debt, rating agency views of that debt, the bond insurers that have been insuring their debt, the state-specific...