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The risk budget this month is unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. However, we are...
One of the problems with GDP as a statistical Swiss-Army knife for economic considerations is its very methodology. This doesn’t mean that there aren’t good and sound reasons for that kind...
Now that Kinder Morgan has come out with a massive dividend cut, I think it will get harder to ignore that this isn’t just about crude oil prices and the death of “transitory.” There...
The fact that there is almost universal recognition of a “manufacturing recession” not just here but spreading across the world is a significant change. After resisting and ignoring as...
While some are shocked that China may have “used” a huge amount of “reserves” in November, that is only because so many myths and anachronisms continue to abound in the...
Crude oil prices are exhibiting all the signs of an increasingly difficult funding environment. The front end of the futures curve is being bent dramatically in relation to even close maturities just...
Global GrowthRecession risks are low and growth should improve in 2016. Excess supply is especially apparent in the raw materials/commodities sectors. This state of overcapacity/supply and a strong...
The incoming economic data continues to disappoint. The Citigroup (N:C) Economic Surprise index set a record this year for the length of time it stayed in the negative column (data less than expected)...
The Weekly Snapshot Top News Headlines1. Terrorist attack in San Bernardino; 14 dead, 21 wounded. Husband and wife terrorist team killed in shootout. President Obama to address nation. 2. ISIS claims...
Did anyone get the license plate of the truck that hit the bulls last Thursday? If not, maybe you managed to catch a glimpse of it when it backed over the bears on Friday. I have it on good authority...
Within the last two months, the S&P 500 Index (iShares Core S&P 500 (N:IVV)) has rebounded remarkably from the lows made in late August, breaking above both moving averages and getting close...
If the junk bond bubble was this week’s most visible inducement toward illiquidity, there have been more than enough indications that might corroborate and explain. With a few more days trading,...
As the manufacturing recession becomes more and more unassailable (and I mean that in more than one way), the fact that it still shows no end or let up suggests still greater difficulty beyond...
Volvo Trucks (L:0HTP) announced yesterday that they were laying off a quarter of the 2,800 people employed at its plant in Dublin, VA. Notifications were made according to regulations about mass...
The GDP statistics for Brazil as of Q3 2015 were worse than expected in every way imaginable. Real GDP fell 4.5% Y/Y, which is nearly double the worst quarter Brazil experienced during the Great...
For the tenth straight week, dating back to the week just before the global liquidations in August, reported domestic crude inventories increased. At 489.4 million barrels, the current level of oil...
There isn’t much as far as confirmation, but it increasingly appears as if “something” just hit the triple hooks (CCC) in the junk bond bubble. At least as far as one view of it,...