Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC

There are a few correlations that I find particularly compelling. The first is Chinese RMB (or CNY) next to WTI crude oil, as both are proxies in their own way of multi-dimensional crosscurrents...

Immediately after the Fed hiked interest rates last Wednesday – after sitting at 0% for 7 years – markets acted pretty much as one might expect. The Fed tightens monetary policy when the...

The incoming economic reports ran two to one negative over the last two weeks, continuing the trend we’ve seen all year. That’s one of the worst two week stretches we’ve seen all...

The Fed’s industrial production series also includes estimates on total motor vehicle assemblies. Auto sales in general have been one of the only bright spots in the economy, especially since...

I covered a good deal of the background here, so I should only reiterate that it is a profound difference in actual mechanics this time as opposed to last. At the end of June 2004, Alan...

Like industrial production, the condition of oil inventory in the US was updated today in contradiction of the expectations driving Federal Reserve models expecting “transitory” weakness...

Now that the FOMC has done it, we get to hear about how it was surely the “right” time for it. Unlike September, conditions are supposedly an order of magnitude more settled. That has...

As the monetary world prepares for the monetary equivalent of D-Day, it bears reminiscing about the true lack of confidence that permeates away from the direct public front of the central bank. Yellen...

Industrial production in China accelerated in November to 6.2% from an abysmal 5.6% in October. As per usual, any similar change is met with assurances that this time, unlike all prior, everything is...

The latest developments from China’s monetary realm were the IMF’s inclusion of RMB into its “reserve” basket, and at a proportion greater than either the pound or yen. None of...

Any ideas about junk bonds outperforming because of the booming economy confirmed by a monetary policy rate hike has been killed and buried. Conventionally, it was assumed that interest rates are not...

On November 2, Hong Kong’s Exchange Fund reported its worst ever quarterly loss. For the quarter the number was an astonishing -HK$63.8 billion, turning what was an already-reduced YTD profit...

So far there has been neither (reindeer) hide nor (snowy white) hair of Santa this December. The Grinch, on the other hand, has hardly been scarce and month-to-date, through the 11th, the S&P 500...

The graph below shows where to, historically, find out-performance given our likely position in the economic cycle.Some caveats of note to the generalized history shown. One is wise to consider both...

Oil prices plunged, junk bonds hit a 2 ½ year low, stocks took a nearly 4% hit, a junk bond fund halted withdrawals, the country’s biggest pipeline operator cut its dividend by 75% and...

This past week, the S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index (iShares Core S&P 500 (N:IVV)) tested and then broke strong support at the 50 and 200-day moving averages after a remarkable rebound from its...