Alhambra Investment Partners, LLC

Everything I wrote in my last post on China’s PMI could be rewritten and reworded for the ISM version of American industry. The index rebounded to above 50 in March for the first time since last...

It is quarter end, so illiquidity irregularity is to be expected except that it isn’t irregular really. Eurodollar futures have been heavily bid for three days in a row now, leaving four...

Calculated “inflation” in Europe disappointed again in March, as for the second month in a row the HICP rate was below zero. There had been some hope after the German version turned just...

With stocks up and treasuries down, there were a couple of interesting contrary trades today in my view. For one, oil prices at the front end of the futures curve did not participate and have been...

Household spending in February 2016 in Japan rose year-over-year for the first time in six months. That was the sum total of any good economic news for the monetary-stricken economy, and it...

Janet Yellen thinks she wants inflation. The market thinks she’s going to get it:iShares TIPS Bond (NYSE:TIP) Chart The hawks at the Fed are losing the battle but I suspect they will win the...

As the indications of hitting a cyclical turn multiply against the steady and alarming negative trend baseline background, there is more clarity on how what looks like an unrelenting slowdown had not...

The “final” estimate for Q4 GDP was uninteresting save the update to corporate profits and cash flow. The upward revision to 1.4% wasn’t really any different than the preliminary or...

The theme for single country ETFs over the last month is either countries that produce a lot of natural resources (commodities) or countries in which sane people don’t invest. Okay, maybe sanity...

There is one part missing from the narrative sketched out in home resales being subjected to monetary imbalance. It is a compelling explanation for what we find as the most striking aspect of existing...

The fundamentals for crude oil continue to be atrocious. Production remains relatively stable if slightly reduced, which is about the only factor in favor of oil prices since the February 11 low. On...

Global stock markets, especially in the US, have made a furious comeback from the lousy start of the year. At its worst level the S&P 500 was down 11% year to date and 15% from its peak late last...

In late summer last year, just in time to accompany the first blast of contraindicated economic reality, Statistics Canada announced that Canadian GDP had contracted in Q2 2015. That followed an...

Credit spreads are a big input to our investment process. It was the widening of spreads that convinced us to reduce our equity allocation before the volatility of last year. But active asset...

Oil prices remain ebullient, relatively, compared to the dismal start to the year. Everything else, it seems, is driven by that background which means “dollar.” In that respect, we look to...

Existing home sales as reported by the National Association of Realtors fell 7.1% in February 2016 from the month before. It was a very large decline but followed a two-month surge beginning December...