* Lonza would probably replace Nobel Biocare
* Baloise likely to remain in blue chip SMI index
* SGS, Givaudan, Geberit possible SMI candidates
By Rupert Pretterklieber
ZURICH, June 15 (Reuters) - Drugs industry supplier Lonza
Analysts reckon Lonza is partially shielded from recession because consumers are less likely to cut back spending on health care than other areas, and its market value of $5.3 billion and high market trading volume mean it is likely to step up from the mid-cap index <.SSMI>.
"Chemicals company Lonza will almost certainly make the step up to the SMI and replace the dental implant maker Nobel Biocare," said Stephan Vollert, analyst at Sal Oppenheim.
Nobel Biocare, with a market capitalisation of $3.1 billion, made a series of profit warnings last year and has lost market share because it had been strong in markets like Spain and the United States, which have been hit particularly hard by recession.
Rankings are calculated based on market value and trading volumes. A company ranked 18 or higher is automatically included in the SMI, while any 23 or lower drops into the mid-cap index.
Lonza, whose shares have been helped in recent sessions by speculation it could move up, is currently 18 and Nobel Biocare 24.
A study by Sal Oppenheim showed insurer Baloise
Inspection services company SGS
These two and SGS have sufficiently large market values but still fall short on trading volumes, the Sal Oppenheim rankings showed.
The make up of the SMI and other Swiss indexes will be announced by the Zurich stock exchange in July and any changes take effect in September. (Writing by Sam Cage; Editing by Rupert Winchester)