Quantifiable Edges

The rally on Friday was accompanied by a sizable drop in the VIX (and even more so for the CBOE OEX Implied Volatility, which is the old calculation for the VIX). This triggered some old studies for...

On Wednesday the bulls tried to make a move higher and failed, making for a higher high and a lower close. On Thursday the opposite happened. The bears failed in their attempt at a move lower. A study...

I noted a few years ago here on the blog that the week after June options expiration has done especially poorly in recent years. The table below is updated and shows all such weeks dating back to...

Reaction to the Fed ended up being negative on Wednesday. The study below is an old one I had not examined in a few years. It looked at other times SPX closed down on a Fed after closing at a 10-day...

One interesting study that I discussed in last night’s subscriber letter considered the fact that SPY (NYSE:SPY) left an unfilled upside gap for the 2nd day in a row while closing at a 50-day...

Thursday after Memorial Day has been a day that has exhibited a bullish bias for many years. I last showed this on the blog last year. The chart below shows updated results. Single-day seasonality can...

Happy Memorial Day! The week of Memorial Day has shown some interesting seasonal tendencies over the years. But it has faltered greatly the last few. The chart below is one I have shown in the past,...

Friday the employment report will be released about an hour before the NYSE open. Employment days have an interesting history and they have contributed to some worthwhile studies over the years. Below...

On Wednesday the Fed will conclude its policy meeting and announce any changes. This happens 8 times per year. I have long referred to these days as “Fed Days.” Fed Days have a long...

The 1st trading day of the month is often a bullish day for the market. In the past I have broken down the tendency by month. And since 1987, May has produced the most profits. Below are results for...

As we head towards the summer, the stock market has two long-term cycles converging that suggest it could be a rough ride. The 2 cycles are the “Best 6 Months” and the “Presidential...

The SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) move lower over the last 3 days has set up a potential “Turnaround Tuesday” scenario. The fact that it made a lower high, lower low, and lower close for at...

Friday’s action caused SPY (NYSE:SPY) to close in an interesting position. Traders could look at the chart and say it is “short-term oversold” due to the fact that it closed at a...

Last month, I shared a table that showed performance of Options Expiration (op-ex) weeks by month. April was one of the most bullish. The study below looks specifically at April op-ex week. I last...

Over the weekend, I decided to run some new studies based on the Quantifiable Edges Capitulative Breadth Indicator (CBI). As I tweeted out near the close, the CBI reached 9 on Friday. Historically, I...

As far as Fed Days go, Wednesday was a disappointment. Not only did it fail to rally, but it also left SPX and NDX at 10-day lows. With Fed Days typically bullish, finishing at a 10-day low is quite...