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We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to remain on hold at Thursday’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. Any policy changes on Thursday would be a surprise. All analysts surveyed by...
Close 1/2 position to pay 10y10y USD swaps (3M basis) at 3.745%First entry was made at 3.63%, so we book 11.5bp on this legThe remaining 1/2 position was opened at 3.40%, so current total P/L is...
The latest IMM data cover the week from 24 to 31 December. What a sentiment change. Of all the central bank action in 2012, the ECB’s introduction of the OMT programme (under which the central...
This week, the scorecard recommends buying JPY, EUR, AUD while selling NZD, SEK, GBP.For the fifth consecutive week, the scorecard recommends buying JPY this week. Positioning still favours being long...
Liquidity requirements in Basel III have been loosened and delayed.The S&P500 ended Friday's session at a five-year high.Markets Overnight It was announced on Sunday that banks will be given four...
An overall solid employment report with maintained positive momentum in job growth in the private sector and an uptick in hourly earnings and the workweek all support household income growth.The...
Market movers aheadThe main event next week will be the meeting of the governing council of the European Central Bank scheduled for Thursday. Although speculation about a rate cut rose following last...
The most interesting part of the FOMC minutes from committee members’ discussion on further asset purchases revealed -- As in past meetings -- thatmembers are increasingly expressing concern...
Minutes show FOMC looking for timing of QE exit mid to late 2013.Stocks retreat, USD gains, Treasuries sell-off extends.Focus today on services PMIs out of eurozone countries and the US employment...
'Risk on' is the name of the game after the U.S. budget deal and long yields are testing recent range highs. However, the deal is fragile and considerable uncertainty remains.The Riksbank's minutes...
When the Polish central bank’s (NBP) Monetary Policy Council (RPP) meets next week, the main topic on the agenda will be the slowdown in the Polish economy and the NBP’s response to it. In...
Some first signs that the risk rally fuelled by averting the fiscal cliff is losing steam.Sell-off in the long end of US Treasuries but followed by a drop in EUR/USD and less cheer in Asian equities...
Congress averts fiscal cliff at the last minute but debt ceiling looms.Fiscal tightening of 1% of GDP and still no resolution to longer term debt challenge.Two hours past the 31 January deadline, a US...
The latest IMM data cover the week from 18 to 24 December. Euro positioning almost neutral. Net short euro positions fell further to just 1.3% of open interest – the lowest level since...
The manufacturing PMIs for December were mixed but on balance still suggest that the Chinese economy continues to recover. The NBS manufacturing PMI in December was unchanged at 50.6 and hence...
US Congress passes tax deal - immediate fiscal cliff avoided.Chinese PMIs indicate continued expansion in the manufacturing sector.Markets start the new year in risk-on mode.Markets since yesterday US...
This week, the scorecard recommends buying JPY, CAD, USD while selling SEK, AUD, GBP.Last weeks' sell-off in JPY seems overdone according to the model, and again this week the model recommends a long...