Danske Markets

This week the scorecard recommends buying JPY, GBP, USD and selling AUD, SEK, NZD.Last week's JPY sell-off seems overdone according to the model, and the scorecard recommends buying JPY again this...

In our Global Macro Views in February, we highlighted the outlook for a U.S. soft patch, which is now materialising. We expect this soft patch to be fairly short due to positive inventory dynamics,...

Stronger-than-expected U.S. labour market data boosts confidence, and global stock markets rise.Prime Minister Razak won the Malaysian elections. Local markets rally on the news.Oil prices rise on...

Positive sentiment driven by ECB and U.S. jobless claimsChinese service sector PMI fell to 54.5 in AprilHollande says he needs Merkel to meet him halfway on banking unionMarkets Overnight The positive...

At today's ECB meeting, Mario Draghi re-opened the door for negative deposit rates. This pushed rates lower across the curve. Furthermore, it implies that money market rates could fall further if...

The ECB cut the refi rate by 25bp to 0.5% and kept the deposit rate unchanged at 0.0%. There was strong consensus towards an interest rate cut in the Governing Council, and towards a cut of only...

The Monetary Policy Council of the Polish central bank (NBP) is meeting next week. Contrary to the consensus expectation that the NBP will keep its key policy rate unchanged, we expect a rate cut of...

The Fed statement was a bit surprising as the tone on growth and employment was kept fairly unchanged despite the recent weakness in data.However, they turned slightly more dovish on the policy...

Market Movers ahead (covers the next two weeks)The main economic release in the euro area within the next two weeks will be GDP numbers for Q1 13. We estimate that the euro area contracted 0.2% q/q in...

Fed opens door slightly for increase in asset purchasesStocks lower despite upward surprise in ISMU.S. yields at five-month lowDecline in U.S. vehicle sales suggests weak start to Q2 consumptionFocus...

10Y Italian and Spanish sovereign bond spread to Germany, narrowed by about 80bp in April, and are now at the lowest levels since 2011. However, most EUR crosses are currently trading below the...

New research from Danske Bank MarketsChina's April NBS manufacturing PMI eased slightly to 50.6 from 50.9 in March, which, in line with other recent data, suggests that the Chinese recovery has lost...

US S&P500 closes at new high again. EUR/USD higher while oil drops.China NBS PMI fell in April, confirming the economy stayed soft into Q2.Australian PMI plunges to lowest level since 2009.All...

We expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower the refinancing rate by 25bp to 0.50% at Thursday's policy meeting. In this case, we expect Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) to lower the lending rate by...

Italian government scraps tax increases and signals less fiscal austerity.Japanese data weaker than expected but still suggest a recovery has started.Today's euro-zone CPI should improve odds of ECB...

We expect a softer tone at this week's FOMC meeting but no change in policy.A scale up in monthly asset purchases is not off the table, but we do expect it to take more time with weak data. So far,...