China's April NBS manufacturing PMI eased slightly to 50.6 from 50.9 in March, which, in line with other recent data, suggests that the Chinese recovery has lost some momentum albeit not dramatic so far. In line with the flash HSBC manufacturing PMI, weakness has been most pronounced within export orders, suggesting that it is driven by lower external demand rather than domestic demand. On a positive note, the new order-inventory-balance remains relatively healthy, and price pressure appears to be easing fast on the back of the recent drop in commodity prices.
We still expect China to be in a moderate recovery in the coming quarters but it looks more fragile and weaker than previously expected. Policy-wise the weakness is not severe enough to force the Chinese government into new stimulus, but a major tightening of fiscal and monetary policy later in 2013 appears to be off the table as well.
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China: Recovery Losing Momentum, But Not Yet Dramatic
Published 05/01/2013, 08:01 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
China: Recovery Losing Momentum, But Not Yet Dramatic
New research from Danske Bank Markets
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