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This week the scorecard recommends buying the CAD, USD and GBP while selling the JPY and CHF. This week, there are only two currencies with a total negative score: the JPY and CHF. Thus, the short...
The repercussions of Crimea's referendum to join Russia which will take place on Sunday is likely to be a focal point in the market next week. The result of the referendum is expected to be in favour...
Following the March ECB meeting, we have opted to more fundamentally revise the level and profile of our EUR/USD forecast. In the near term, we now look for the cross to head a little higher into the...
As we head into the weekend, all commodities markets have eyes on Sunday's referendum on Crimea. A further escalation in the crisis could have implications for the energy and grains market given...
Review US data has continued to be soft over the past month. However, interest rates have not moved in any significant way, as much of the weakness has been attributed to the bad weather. This view...
Following the March ECB meeting, we have opted to more fundamentally revise the level and profile of our EUR/USD forecast. We now look for the cross to head a little higher in the near term into the...
Market movers today Focus will remain on Ukraine where Crimea's referendum to join Russia will take place on Sunday. The referendum is expected to be in favour of joining Russia, so focus will be on...
Portfolio updateOur base case remains relatively intactWe recommend buying SWH184 ASWTradesNew: buy SWH184 ASW @ 6.5bp. P/L: -5bp/15bp.New: buy SGB1050 ASW vs. SGB1047 ASW in an ASW box @ -6bp. P/L:...
The Russian rouble continues to slide despite Bank Rossii's USD400m daily interventions as geopolitical uncertainties are not easing. As Bank Rossii unexpectedly hiked its key rates on 3 March 2014,...
Another week of strong primary market activity Modest risk-off mode with widening CDS indices Focus on Crimea's referendum on Sunday This week has been dominated by strong issuance activity in the...
Following a strong rally in stock markets in February and early March, we are increasingly concerned that we are in for more of the correction that started over the past week. A negative mix of...
Draghi often states that the ECB's current monetary policy is very accommodative, but how accommodative is it really? Draw your own conclusions. See page two for a perspective on historical euro area...
Euro area periphery data continues its improvement and most sovereign yields are now touching historical lows (10Y) . Survey data remains at relatively high levels and the improvement is also seen in...
Copper prices have lost more than 9% over the past week, more than 12% since the beginning of the year, and are at their lowest levels since mid-2010. The main culprit has been increased concern...
Market movers today In the data calendar the main event today is the release of February retail sales in the US. We expect headline retail sales to rebound 0.3% m/m on the back of a very weak January...
The NZD/USD has increased significantly since the beginning of February as market has priced in nearly 100bp hikes on a 1Y horizon from RBNZ. In our view, current pricing of RBNZ seems a little...
Global indicators signal slow global growth at the beginning of 2014, as especially the US is facing temporary headwinds. We expect a moderation in H114 followed by a re-acceleration in H214 as US...