Market movers today
In the data calendar the main event today is the release of February retail sales in the US. We expect headline retail sales to rebound 0.3% m/m on the back of a very weak January where bad weather weighed on consumer spending. Despite the expected rebound in February, the conclusion remains that consumer spending has lost considerable momentum in the US.
In Europe, the French consumer prices (HICP) deserves some attention as it is prime suspect for the unchanged euro area inflation in February as German, Italian, Spanish and Dutch inflation were all lower. We expect French inflation to have increased to 1.0% y/y from 0.8% y/y mainly due to higher core inflation. If we are right, the implication is that euro area inflation for February should be revised down to 0.7% y/y.
In the US at 15:00 CET, the Senate Banking Committee will hold nomination hearings for the Fed board of governors. Stanley Fischer (nominated as vice-chairman), Lael Brainard and Jerome Powell (nominated for two ordinary vacant seats) will be present at the meeting. Finally, ECB president Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak late this afternoon in Vienna in connection with the Schumpeter Award Ceremony.
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