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The latest IMM data cover the week from 18 to 25 March 2014. IMM data released last Friday showed that speculators unwound some of the net EUR longs put on in the week to 18 March. Speculative...
This week the scorecard recommends buying the AUD, NZD and USD while selling the CAD, EUR and NOK. Despite a fairly strong rally last week in the AUD and NZD, which gained nearly 1.8% and 1.5%...
It cannot be excluded, but we believe the chance of a rate cut in July is higher. What could prove decisive is next weeks March PMI figures. Judging by preliminary German PMIs, Swedish Manufacturing...
In terms of data the main release is euro area inflation for March. We expect it to decline to a new cycle-low of 0.5% y/y mainly due to the timing of Easter. If we are right in our forecast we see...
Market Movers In Europe, preliminary March HICP inflation data from Spain and Germany are due today. This will give us the first indication on the important euro-area inflation for March to be...
NIER forecast supports our view of inflation prospects The Riksbank SHOULD signal rates to be 'lower for longer' Take profit in the SEK FRA/3M EURIBOR box Close the BEI3107 widener and move further...
IMF to unlock USD27bn for Ukraine After several weeks of sessions in March 2014 in Ukraine's capital Kiev, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has announced that it has achieved a staff level...
European inflation is already far below the ECB's target and the March figures will likely show a new low of 0.5%. That said, the low level of inflation is partly due to a technicality related to...
European inflation is already far below the ECB's target and the March figures will likely show a new low of 0.5%. That said, the low level of inflation is partly due to a technicality related to...
Still waiting for the recovery Despite a weak end to 2013, the Danish economy is set for stronger growth. From headwinds to tailwinds in 2014 Strong growth and increasing employment in Sweden ...
Market movers today In Europe the main focus will be on the release of money supply and credit data in the euro area for February. In general the data have been weak, albeit there was a slight...
The Finnish government last night (25 March) announced additional fiscal austerity of EUR2.3bn in expenditure cuts and tax changes. The budget framework covers 2015-18, which extends beyond the next...
Inflation outlookEuro inflation remains far below the ECB’s 2% target and was 0.7% in February. We expect it to reach a new cycle-low of 0.5% in March (see Flash Comment). In coming months,...
Today's data calendar is fairly light in terms of data releases, with the highlight being US durable goods orders for February. Durable goods orders declined relatively sharply in the previous two...
Market overview Although the US economy has been displaying signs of weakness recently, the Federal Reserve has lifted its policy rate projections for the end of 2015 and 2016. The ECB did not opt...
In the data calendar the main event is the release of IFO-business climate. We expect a decline in business climate to 110.8 from 111.3 but yesterday's weak manufacturing and services PMIs for Germany...
The main focus will be the release of the flash PMIs. In the euro area we expect the composite PMI to have declined slightly to 53.1 in March from 53.3 in February driven by a drop in the...