European inflation is already far below the ECB's target and the March figures will likely show a new low of 0.5%. That said, the low level of inflation is partly due to a technicality related to Easter, so the ECB may refrain from acting.
Nevertheless, we expect that the ECB will ease monetary policy at its meeting on Thursday given the current level of inflation. The decision will be tight, though, as the economy is recovering.
In the US, all eyes will be on non-farm payrolls, which delivered a positive surprise in February. We expect that 195,000 new jobs were created between February and March.
We expect the ISM to rise slightly in March - the US economy still looks reasonably strong from a cyclical perspective.
China's NBS PMI is expected to drop below the magical 50 mark, falling to its lowest level since August 2012. China's economy still appears fragile.
Foreign currency reserve figures for Denmark will again place focus on the timing of unilateral Danish rate hikes.
Global macro and market themes
Emerging market assets had a strong week despite the Crimean crisis and weak Chinese data. Markets are banking on stimuli and a near-term turnaround in China.
Yields continue to fall in southern Europe, with 10-year Portuguese rates dropping below 4% - their lowest level since 2009.
US figures show some improvement after the harsh winter weather depressed activity. Growth looks set to gradually pick up again from here.
Euro-activity continues to rise - highest consumer confidence in six years.
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