Danske Markets

The Riksbank is widely expected to cut the repo rate and lower its rate path on 3 July. Here, we sketch three scenarios and the expected impact on EUR/SEK. Scenario II is the most likely, in our...

Denmark: Recovery is here We have been waiting for a long time but at long last the recovery seems to be taking hold Sweden: The uncertainty principle The Riksbank is set to cut the repo rate and...

The main data release today is US durable goods orders where focus will be on core orders. The series is quite volatile and although core orders were weaker than expected in April, it has jumped...

German IFO expectations index declined again in June as it went down to 104.8 from 106.2 and is now around the level it was in autumn 2013. The current assessment indication was unchanged at 114.8 and...

The IFO business climate index decreased more than expected in June, down from 110.4 to 109.7, back to December 2013 level. Nonetheless the survey is still consistent with dynamic growth in the second...

Summary and outlook The euro area recovery is currently driven by domestic demand, as the global slowdown in Q1 resulted in weaker export growth. Looking ahead, survey indicators point to higher...

The German IFO business survey will give more information about whether the negative impact from the global slowdown in Q1 is about to fade. We expect the expectation component to decline whereas the...

Market overview The ECB introduces a negative deposit rate and announces targeted LTROs. Political turbulence in eastern Europe and the Middle East poses the added risk of energy price rises. ...

New repo rate forecast: a July rate cut followed by rates on hold until at least summer 2016. The curvature on the Swedish yield curve should be pushed further out - be long the 5Y point on the...

Leading indicators continue to signal strong growth in Ireland and, according to our models, we should brace ourselves for a strong rebound when Q1 GDP data is released next week. We expect a jump in...

Euro PMI manufacturing declined to 51.9 in June from 52.2 in May. At the same time, the service PMI was lower at 52.8 in June from 53.2 in May. Consensus was for both figures to be almost unchanged -...

The latest IMM data covers the week 10-17 June 2014. IMM data released on Friday revealed the largest single week bullish GBP build since September 2013. The move was sparked by Bank of England...

This week the scorecard recommends buying NOK, SEK and NZD while selling JPY, CAD and EUR. Last week's sell-off in NOK seems very overdone according to the model and thus the scorecard recommends...

The main focus today is euro PMIs. We expect the manufacturing PMI to decline further due to the lagged effect of the global slowdown in Q1. On the other hand the service PMI should increase slightly...

In Sweden, the week ahead contains interesting information in the form of retail sales and trade balance data (both published on Friday). In Sweden, the big question is if the Riksbank will follow...

Risk assets got a further boost this week from the continued dovish tone from Fed showing that the punch bowl will not be taken away any time soon – see Flash Comment: Fed statement balanced...