The main data release today is US durable goods orders where focus will be on core orders. The series is quite volatile and although core orders were weaker than expected in April, it has jumped higher in recent months and suggests a rebound in US capex in Q2 after a weak Q1. The recent upward trend is set to continue in May, thus giving more confidence of a broad-based recovery going into H2 (see more below).
Also in the US the third release of GDP growth in Q1 is due and we expect a downward revision to -1.8% q/q from -1.0% q/q. Our expectation of a downward revision follows as health care spending should be revised sharply lower.
ECB's Weidmann speaks today. He is considered very hawkish but recently has sounded slightly more balanced about monetary policy and has not been able to change market sentiment. Ahead of the EU summit on Friday, he is likely to continue to communicate a need for strengthening fiscal rules.
Today at 09:00 CET, we will publish our quarterly Nordic Outlook including our new forecasts on the Nordic countries.
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