This week the scorecard recommends buying NOK, SEK and NZD while selling JPY, CAD and EUR.
Last week's sell-off in NOK seems very overdone according to the model and thus the scorecard recommends buying NOK this week. Note, however, that most other input factors have a negative signal on NOK. In particular, the input factors for interest rates and risk premiums favour selling NOK following last week's decline in the 1M Norwegian swap rate and an increase in 1M USD/NOK implied volatility. The scorecard also recommends buying SEK this week following last week's sell-off. As with NOK, most other input factors also favour being short SEK. However, the model's input factors are less negative on SEK relative to NOK.
Again this week, the scorecard recommends selling JPY and CAD. Last week's rally in CAD seems overdone according to the model, while most input factors still favour being short JPY. In particular, the input factor for option market positioning remains negative on JPY following the past week's increase in 1M USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversal.
Last week's signals resulted in a 0.7% loss. In particular, the long NOK and the short CAD positions were expensive. Year to date, the scorecard model has generated a total profit of 4.1%.
Next scorecard signals will be sent out on 30 June.
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