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In a big surprise move, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) expanded its QE programme quite aggressively in connection with today's monetary meeting. It expanded the target for the annual expansion in the...
No sign of a trend reversal, Buy 5Y covered bonds outright. Policy rate at zero -- experience from the US shows that there is room for considerable gyration in long-dated rates even when the central...
Market MoversWe now expect euro-area HICP to remain unchanged at this cycle low of 0.3% in October. Our updated forecast followed after German inflation surprised by declining to 0.7% in October. The...
Leading indicators released today remain consistent with a continued slow recovery in H2. Consumer confidence hit the highest level since 2002, after a small increase in October. Hard data came out on...
More and more countries around the world are now facing outright deflation and consequently central banks have continued to cut interest rates and most major economies' central banks have already hit...
Our SVAR decomposition of shocks to the oil price shows that positive supply shocks have been the main driver of oil prices this year. Furthermore its shows that despite the long list of unresolved...
Market movers today Spanish and German inflation will provide information about the impact of the decline in the oil price during October. In line with our above-consensus forecast for euro-area...
The Fed surprised today by issuing a much more hawkish statement than expected. - First, the Fed decided to strengthen the language on the labour market by now pointing to solid job gains and also...
SEK to outperform on growth, valuation after the Riksbank Lower commodity prices and CPI to weigh on RBNZ, NZD Our models and technical indicators all point to a lower NZD/SEKStrategy Yesterday the...
The ECB’s bank lending survey for October 2014 showed that credit standards for all loan categories (consumers, enterprises and housing) were eased again. This was also the case in the previous...
Market movers today The main event is the Fed meeting tonight. Given the recent market turmoil, the Fed is likely to reiterate the 'considerable time' forward guidance and the 'significant...
We expect HICP inflation (due for release on Friday) to increase to 0.6% y/y in October from 0.3% y/y in September (consensus 0.4% y/y) despite the decline in the oil price during the month. The...
At Wednesday's meeting we expect the Fed to do the following. - End asset purchases. - Keep the 'considerable time' forward guidance. - Keep the 'significant underutilisation' description of labour...
For the first time in a year, Danish investors net sold foreign bonds. Furthermore, Danish investors net sold foreign shares for the second straight month. Foreign investors net purchased Danish...
The Riksbank went a bit further than we expected by cutting the repo rate to zero but it was in line with our expectations in terms of postponing the first rate hike to mid-2016. It also said that if...
Market movers todayIn the US, durable goods orders are due for release and consensus is for an increase of 0.5% m/m in September. It should be noted that there was a sharp decline of 18.4% m/m in...
This week the scorecard recommends buying EUR, NZD and CHF while selling USD, CAD and GBP. Last week's signals resulted in a 0.5% gain. In particular, the long CAD position and the short NZD and SEK...