Market movers today
The main event is the Fed meeting tonight. Given the recent market turmoil, the Fed is likely to reiterate the 'considerable time' forward guidance and the 'significant underutilisation' description of the labour market. We expect the Fed to end asset purchases as has been signalled by several members recently and we only see 30-40% likelihood of the Fed mentioning the possibility of QE4. We have changed our Fed first hike forecast from April to June next year due to the lower inflation outlook and slower growth outside US (for more see Fed preview: softer tone on inflation but bar for QE4 is high , 28 October).
In the euro area the ECB's Bank Lending Survey for Q4 is due for release. After the ECB's Asset Quality Review and stress tests showed that supply side constraints on credit growth should be limited, it will be particularly interesting to see whether demand for credit and loans continues to increase. In Q3 demand for credit and loans increased but we could see some setback for enterprises in Q4 following the latest weakness in economic data.
Norwegian retail sales and business and consumer confidence will be in focus in Scandinavia.
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