Market Movers
We expect the August euro area manufacturing PMI to surprise on the upside and increase to 52.6 to mark a new high for this year. The order/inventory balance suggests an increase and less uncertainty relating to Greece should have a positive impact as well. We expect the lower oil price to support growth in the service sector and look for an unchanged euro area service PMI at 54.0.
This afternoon the August Markit manufacturing PMI for US will be released. The gap between the ISM and PMI widened to 1pp in July which suggests some downside to the PMI. However, consensus expects a slight increase to 53.9.
Finally, we look for a small increase in euro area consumer confidence in August. So far, survey indicators for August have not rebounded on the back of the Greek deal, but consumer sentiment is also supported by the recent decline in oil prices which is slowly feeding through to lower gasoline prices.
Little on the Scandi agenda today.
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